UFC: Felipe Franco vs Brendson Ribeiro Preview — Full Card Model Reads & Power Ratings

UFC: Felipe Franco vs Brendson Ribeiro headlines a card with 29 fights our model has generated pre-fight reads for on October 11, 2026. Below: model win probabilities, method reads and power-rating context for every fight on the main card.

Main event

Felipe Franco meets Brendson Ribeiro in a fight scheduled for 3 rounds. Our model gives Felipe Franco a 85% chance to win. Method: 30% KO/TKO, 16% submission, 54% decision — a 58% chance this fight goes the distance. By our whole-history power rating (Bradley-Terry, the same method behind the win-probability read), Felipe Franco rates above Brendson Ribeiro.

Card breakdown

• Felipe Franco vs Brendson Ribeiro: model favours Felipe Franco at 85% (Elo 1502 vs 1460) Method: 30% KO/TKO, 16% submission, 54% decision — a 58% chance this fight goes the distance.
• Ernesta Kareckaite vs Melissa Gatto: model favours Melissa Gatto at 51% (Elo 1485 vs 1498) Method: 22% KO/TKO, 12% submission, 66% decision — a 65% chance this fight goes the distance.
• Francisco Prado vs Ismael Bonfim: model favours Ismael Bonfim at 69% (Elo 1445 vs 1491) Method: 29% KO/TKO, 12% submission, 58% decision — a 59% chance this fight goes the distance.
• Julius Walker vs Gerald Meerschaert: model favours Julius Walker at 64% (Elo 1473 vs 1466) Method: 31% KO/TKO, 22% submission, 47% decision — a 48% chance this fight goes the distance.
• Lupita Godinez vs Ketlen Souza: model favours Ketlen Souza at 69% (Elo 1500 vs 1518) Method: 36% KO/TKO, 11% submission, 53% decision — a 54% chance this fight goes the distance.
• Malcolm Wellmaker vs Otari Tanzilovi: model favours Otari Tanzilovi at 59% (Elo 1496 vs 1484) Method: 27% KO/TKO, 10% submission, 63% decision — a 64% chance this fight goes the distance.