UFC: Islam Makhachev vs Ian Machado Garry Preview — Full Card Model Reads & Power Ratings

UFC: Islam Makhachev vs Ian Machado Garry headlines a card with 12 fights our model has generated pre-fight reads for on August 16, 2026. Below: model win probabilities, method reads and power-rating context for every fight on the main card.

Main event

Islam Makhachev meets Ian Machado Garry in a fight scheduled for 3 rounds. Our model gives Islam Makhachev a 58% chance to win. Method: 25% KO/TKO, 15% submission, 60% decision — a 62% chance this fight goes the distance. By our whole-history power rating (Bradley-Terry, the same method behind the win-probability read), Islam Makhachev rates above Ian Machado Garry.

Card breakdown

• Islam Makhachev vs Ian Machado Garry: model favours Islam Makhachev at 58% (Elo 1740 vs 1638) Method: 25% KO/TKO, 15% submission, 60% decision — a 62% chance this fight goes the distance.
• Mackenzie Dern vs Gillian Robertson: model favours Gillian Robertson at 66% (Elo 1585 vs 1602) Method: 17% KO/TKO, 27% submission, 56% decision — a 58% chance this fight goes the distance.
• Chidi Njokuani vs Joel Alvarez: model favours Joel Alvarez at 73% (Elo 1502 vs 1578) Method: 41% KO/TKO, 14% submission, 45% decision — a 42% chance this fight goes the distance.
• Jalin Turner vs Kaue Fernandes: model favours Kaue Fernandes at 56% (Elo 1538 vs 1531) Method: 43% KO/TKO, 15% submission, 42% decision — a 43% chance this fight goes the distance.
• Jeremiah Wells vs Myktybek Orolbai: model favours Myktybek Orolbai at 85% (Elo 1546 vs 1567) Method: 31% KO/TKO, 23% submission, 45% decision — a 48% chance this fight goes the distance.
• Rafael Tobias vs Lucas Fernando: model favours Rafael Tobias at 53% (Elo 1482 vs 1500) Method: 27% KO/TKO, 26% submission, 47% decision — a 46% chance this fight goes the distance.