UFC: Mario Pinto vs Ryan Spann Preview — Full Card Model Reads & Power Ratings

UFC: Mario Pinto vs Ryan Spann headlines a card with 26 fights our model has generated pre-fight reads for on September 05, 2026. Below: model win probabilities, method reads and power-rating context for every fight on the main card.

Main event

Mario Pinto meets Ryan Spann in a fight scheduled for 3 rounds. Our model gives Mario Pinto a 85% chance to win. Method: 42% KO/TKO, 19% submission, 39% decision — a 40% chance this fight goes the distance. By our whole-history power rating (Bradley-Terry, the same method behind the win-probability read), Mario Pinto rates above Ryan Spann.

Card breakdown

• Mario Pinto vs Ryan Spann: model favours Mario Pinto at 85% (Elo 1547 vs 1552) Method: 42% KO/TKO, 19% submission, 39% decision — a 40% chance this fight goes the distance.
• Oumar Sy vs Modestas Bukauskas: model favours Oumar Sy at 75% (Elo 1514 vs 1548) Method: 26% KO/TKO, 19% submission, 55% decision — a 54% chance this fight goes the distance.
• Nora Cornolle vs Klaudia Syguła: model favours Nora Cornolle at 67% (Elo 1501 vs 1500) Method: 36% KO/TKO, 15% submission, 50% decision — a 49% chance this fight goes the distance.
• Daniel Hooker vs Salahdine Parnasse: model favours Daniel Hooker at 50% (Elo 1500 vs 1500) Method: 34% KO/TKO, 20% submission, 45% decision — a 46% chance this fight goes the distance.
• Matthieu Duclos vs Luis Felipe Dias: model favours Luis Felipe Dias at 73% (Elo 1500 vs 1516) Method: 58% KO/TKO, 8% submission, 34% decision — a 38% chance this fight goes the distance.
• Fares Ziam vs Axel Sola: model favours Fares Ziam at 74% (Elo 1576 vs 1498) Method: 27% KO/TKO, 15% submission, 58% decision — a 58% chance this fight goes the distance.