UFC: Raoni Barcelos vs Raul Rosas Jr. Preview — Full Card Model Reads & Power Ratings

UFC: Raoni Barcelos vs Raul Rosas Jr. headlines a card with 34 fights our model has generated pre-fight reads for on September 27, 2026. Below: model win probabilities, method reads and power-rating context for every fight on the main card.

Main event

Raoni Barcelos meets Raul Rosas Jr. in a fight scheduled for 3 rounds. Our model gives Raul Rosas Jr. a 67% chance to win. Method: 22% KO/TKO, 19% submission, 59% decision — a 60% chance this fight goes the distance. By our whole-history power rating (Bradley-Terry, the same method behind the win-probability read), Raoni Barcelos rates above Raul Rosas Jr..

Card breakdown

• Raoni Barcelos vs Raul Rosas Jr.: model favours Raul Rosas Jr. at 67% (Elo 1599 vs 1572) Method: 22% KO/TKO, 19% submission, 59% decision — a 60% chance this fight goes the distance.
• Ailin Perez vs Norma Dumont: model favours Ailin Perez at 57% (Elo 1576 vs 1593) Method: 17% KO/TKO, 9% submission, 74% decision — a 74% chance this fight goes the distance.
• Luis Hernandez vs Sedriques Dumas: model favours Luis Hernandez at 58% (Elo 1500 vs 1464) Method: 34% KO/TKO, 18% submission, 48% decision — a 46% chance this fight goes the distance.
• Rinya Nakamura vs Brady Hiestand: model favours Rinya Nakamura at 51% (Elo 1541 vs 1532) Method: 31% KO/TKO, 20% submission, 48% decision — a 48% chance this fight goes the distance.
• Robert Bryczek vs Rodolfo Vieira: model favours Rodolfo Vieira at 59% (Elo 1488 vs 1509) Method: 23% KO/TKO, 20% submission, 57% decision — a 56% chance this fight goes the distance.
• Christian Edwards vs Rodolfo Bellato: model favours Rodolfo Bellato at 64% (Elo 1486 vs 1516) Method: 29% KO/TKO, 12% submission, 59% decision — a 56% chance this fight goes the distance.