UFC: Umar Nurmagomedov vs Song Yadong Preview — Full Card Model Reads & Power Ratings

UFC: Umar Nurmagomedov vs Song Yadong headlines a card with 21 fights our model has generated pre-fight reads for on August 29, 2026. Below: model win probabilities, method reads and power-rating context for every fight on the main card.

Main event

Umar Nurmagomedov meets Song Yadong in a fight scheduled for 3 rounds. Our model gives Umar Nurmagomedov a 67% chance to win. Method: 25% KO/TKO, 12% submission, 64% decision — a 64% chance this fight goes the distance. By our whole-history power rating (Bradley-Terry, the same method behind the win-probability read), Umar Nurmagomedov rates above Song Yadong.

Card breakdown

• Umar Nurmagomedov vs Song Yadong: model favours Umar Nurmagomedov at 67% (Elo 1618 vs 1616) Method: 25% KO/TKO, 12% submission, 64% decision — a 64% chance this fight goes the distance.
• Aori Qileng vs Kai Asakura: model favours Kai Asakura at 59% (Elo 1500 vs 1491) Method: 47% KO/TKO, 17% submission, 35% decision — a 40% chance this fight goes the distance.
• Yan Xiaonan vs Denise Gomes: model favours Denise Gomes at 76% (Elo 1570 vs 1564) Method: 27% KO/TKO, 11% submission, 62% decision — a 63% chance this fight goes the distance.
• Cameron Nelson vs Ding Meng: model favours Ding Meng at 52% (Elo 1500 vs 1484) Method: 34% KO/TKO, 12% submission, 54% decision — a 55% chance this fight goes the distance.
• Hector Santiago vs Lawrence Lui: model favours Lawrence Lui at 71% (Elo 1500 vs 1516) Method: 27% KO/TKO, 16% submission, 57% decision — a 56% chance this fight goes the distance.
• Levi Rodrigues Jr. vs Liu Ce: model favours Liu Ce at 52% (Elo 1483 vs 1500) Method: 51% KO/TKO, 16% submission, 33% decision — a 34% chance this fight goes the distance.