Value Bet Results — 2026-07-28: 9-7, -4.5 units

The results

Here's how our value bets from 2026-07-28 settled — honestly, wins and losses. The bottom line: 9-7 across 16 bets, -4.5 units, average CLV +6.5pp.

Tennis

• Kamil Majchrzak vs Tommy Paul — Under 21.5: ❌ Lost (-1.22u, CLV +0.0pp)
• Trevor Svajda vs Jakub Mensik — Under 21.5: ❌ Lost (-1.62u, CLV +3.0pp)
• Ugo Humbert vs Andres Martin — Ugo Humbert: ✅ Won (+1.25u, CLV +0.0pp)
• Julieta Pareja vs Xin Yu Wang — Xin Yu Wang: ✅ Won (+1.81u, CLV -5.3pp)
• Alex Michelsen vs Mackenzie Mcdonald — Under 21.5: ❌ Lost (-1.67u, CLV +4.0pp)

Baseball

• Pittsburgh Pirates vs Arizona Diamondbacks — Under 9.0: ❌ Lost (-2.09u, CLV -0.5pp)
• Detroit Tigers vs Baltimore Orioles — Baltimore Orioles: ✅ Won (+1.58u, CLV +0.0pp)
• Detroit Tigers vs Baltimore Orioles — Under 9.0: ❌ Lost (-2.64u, CLV +0.0pp)
• Miami Marlins vs Philadelphia Phillies — Philadelphia Phillies: ✅ Won (+0.51u, CLV +5.1pp)
• Miami Marlins vs Philadelphia Phillies — Over 8.5: ❌ Lost (-2.02u, CLV +0.5pp)
• Cincinnati Reds vs Cleveland Guardians — Cleveland Guardians: ❌ Lost (-4.44u, CLV +42.1pp)
• Minnesota Twins vs Kansas City Royals — Kansas City Royals: ✅ Won (+0.62u, CLV +6.4pp)
• Los Angeles Angels vs Houston Astros — Houston Astros: ✅ Won (+1.45u, CLV +0.5pp)
• Athletics vs Boston Red Sox — Under 9.5: ✅ Won (+1.96u, CLV +9.0pp)
• Athletics vs Boston Red Sox — Boston Red Sox: ✅ Won (+1.48u, CLV -1.7pp)
• San Francisco Giants vs Milwaukee Brewers — Milwaukee Brewers: ✅ Won (+0.53u, CLV +3.6pp)

What it means

A single night is noise — the metric that matters is closing line value across hundreds of bets. Beat the sharpest books' closing line consistently and profit follows over time, regardless of any one bet's result. The full, continuously-updated record is in the open on our track record.