Value Bet Results — 2026-08-04: 13-13, +0.4 units

The results

Here's how our value bets from 2026-08-04 settled — honestly, wins and losses. The bottom line: 13-13 across 33 bets, +0.4 units, average CLV +0.4pp.

Tennis

• Sebastian Baez vs Mattia Bellucci — Sebastian Baez: ✅ Won (+2.77u, CLV +0.0pp)
• Sebastian Baez vs Mattia Bellucci — Under 22.5: ➖ Void (+0.00u, CLV +3.6pp)
• Martin Damm vs Stefanos Tsitsipas — Stefanos Tsitsipas: ✅ Won (+2.46u, CLV +2.6pp)
• Duncan Chan vs Thiago Agustin Tirante — Under 21.5: ❌ Lost (-1.56u, CLV +2.0pp)
• Duncan Chan vs Thiago Agustin Tirante — Duncan Chan: ❌ Lost (-0.56u, CLV +1.1pp)
• Elina Svitolina vs Jessica Bouzas Maneiro — Elina Svitolina: ✅ Won (+0.90u, CLV +0.9pp)
• Hubert Hurkacz vs Marcos Giron — Under 22.5: ❌ Lost (-2.00u, CLV +3.4pp)
• Hubert Hurkacz vs Marcos Giron — Marcos Giron: ❌ Lost (-2.28u, CLV -1.9pp)
• Maria Camila Osorio Serrano vs Ekaterina Alexandrova — Maria Camila Osorio Serrano: ❌ Lost (-0.66u, CLV +6.6pp)
• Sara Bejlek vs Iga Swiatek — Iga Swiatek: ✅ Won (+0.55u, CLV +0.9pp)
• Donna Vekic vs Viktorija Golubic — Donna Vekic: ❌ Lost (-2.64u, CLV -1.1pp)
• Pablo Carreno Busta vs Valentin Royer — Valentin Royer: ✅ Won (+2.76u, CLV -6.7pp)
• Daniel Merida Aguilar vs Liam Draxl — Daniel Merida Aguilar: ✅ Won (+2.53u, CLV +3.0pp)
• Alexei Popyrin vs Roman Andres Burruchaga — Alexei Popyrin: ✅ Won (+2.18u, CLV +2.5pp)
• Lorenzo Sonego vs Tallon Griekspoor — Under 22.5: ➖ Void (+0.00u, CLV +0.0pp)
• Terence Atmane vs Jack Draper — Jack Draper: ❌ Lost (-5.00u, CLV -2.0pp)
• Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Botic Van De Zandschulp — Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard: ❌ Lost (-1.65u, CLV +0.9pp)
• Shintaro Mochizuki vs Fabian Marozsan — Under 21.5: ➖ Void (+0.00u, CLV +0.0pp)
• Shintaro Mochizuki vs Fabian Marozsan — Fabian Marozsan: ✅ Won (+2.70u, CLV -1.9pp)
• Kamilla Rakhimova vs Katerina Siniakova — Kamilla Rakhimova: ➖ Void (+0.00u, CLV -1.1pp)
• Brandon Nakashima vs Daniel Altmaier — Under 21.5: ➖ Void (+0.00u, CLV -1.0pp)
• Aryna Sabalenka vs Moyuka Uchijima — Over 17.5: ✅ Won (+1.41u, CLV +3.0pp)
• Frances Tiafoe vs Marin Cilic — Under 22.5: ➖ Void (+0.00u, CLV +6.2pp)
• Flavio Cobolli vs Yannick Hanfmann — Under 22.5: ➖ Void (+0.00u, CLV +3.0pp)
• Clara Tauson vs Nikola Bartunkova — Nikola Bartunkova: ✅ Won (+1.41u, CLV +3.0pp)

Baseball

• Baltimore Orioles vs Los Angeles Angels — Los Angeles Angels: ✅ Won (+1.72u, CLV -1.2pp)
• Philadelphia Phillies vs Washington Nationals — Washington Nationals: ❌ Lost (-0.78u, CLV -5.0pp)
• New York Yankees vs St. Louis Cardinals — St. Louis Cardinals: ❌ Lost (-1.26u, CLV -12.1pp)
• New York Yankees vs St. Louis Cardinals — Over 8.5: ❌ Lost (-2.48u, CLV +3.0pp)
• Boston Red Sox vs Chicago White Sox — Chicago White Sox: ❌ Lost (-1.56u, CLV -8.1pp)
• Milwaukee Brewers vs Pittsburgh Pirates — Pittsburgh Pirates: ❌ Lost (-1.55u, CLV +4.8pp)
• Chicago Cubs vs Los Angeles Dodgers — Under 8.5: ✅ Won (+1.49u, CLV -1.4pp)
• Houston Astros vs Toronto Blue Jays — Houston Astros -1.5: ✅ Won (+1.48u, CLV +5.2pp)

What it means

A single night is noise — the metric that matters is closing line value across hundreds of bets. Beat the sharpest books' closing line consistently and profit follows over time, regardless of any one bet's result. The full, continuously-updated record is in the open on our track record.