Value Bet Results — 2026-09-11: 3-5, -4.2 units

The results

Here's how our value bets from 2026-09-11 settled — honestly, wins and losses. The bottom line: 3-5 across 8 bets, -4.2 units, average CLV +1.9pp.

Football

• SV Darmstadt 98 vs DSC Arminia Bielefeld — DSC Arminia Bielefeld to win: ❌ Lost (-1.19u, CLV +2.6pp)
• 1. FC Union Berlin vs FC Schalke 04 — FC Schalke 04 +0.25: ✅ Won (+0.74u, CLV -0.5pp)
• Venezia FC vs ACF Fiorentina — Venezia FC to win: ❌ Lost (-0.71u, CLV +6.1pp)
• West Ham United FC vs Wrexham AFC — West Ham United FC +0: ✅ Won (+0.99u, CLV +4.7pp)

Baseball

• Detroit Tigers vs Colorado Rockies — Colorado Rockies: ❌ Lost (-0.99u, CLV +1.9pp)
• Washington Nationals vs Los Angeles Angels — Under 7.5: ✅ Won (+1.41u, CLV +0.0pp)
• Toronto Blue Jays vs Baltimore Orioles — Under 7.5: ❌ Lost (-1.45u, CLV +2.5pp)
• Athletics vs Seattle Mariners — Under 10.0: ❌ Lost (-2.97u, CLV -1.0pp)

What it means

A single night is noise — the metric that matters is closing line value across hundreds of bets. Beat the sharpest books' closing line consistently and profit follows over time, regardless of any one bet's result. The full, continuously-updated record is in the open on our track record.