Value Bet Results — 2026-09-12: 19-14, +7.0 units

The results

Here's how our value bets from 2026-09-12 settled — honestly, wins and losses. The bottom line: 19-14 across 34 bets, +7.0 units, average CLV +3.6pp.

Football

• Derby County FC vs Birmingham City FC — Derby County FC +0.25: ❌ Lost (-0.74u, CLV +6.6pp)
• West Bromwich Albion FC vs Queens Park Rangers FC — West Bromwich Albion FC +0: ➖ Void (+0.00u, CLV -0.9pp)
• Real Racing Club de Santander vs Deportivo Alavés — Under2.5: ❌ Lost (-0.95u, CLV +12.6pp)
• Rot-Weiss Essen vs Würzburger Kickers — Rot-Weiss Essen to win: ✅ Won (+0.74u, CLV +11.8pp)
• Borussia Dortmund vs SC Paderborn 07 — Borussia Dortmund +0: ✅ Won (+0.24u, CLV -0.3pp)
• Blackburn Rovers FC vs Millwall FC — Blackburn Rovers FC +0: ✅ Won (+0.99u, CLV +18.7pp)
• Crystal Palace FC vs Ipswich Town FC — Ipswich Town FC +0.50: ✅ Won (+1.09u, CLV +10.5pp)
• Crystal Palace FC vs Ipswich Town FC — Under2.5: ❌ Lost (-0.61u, CLV +8.3pp)
• Liverpool FC vs Fulham FC — Liverpool FC -1.25: ❌ Lost (-0.56u, CLV -3.4pp)
• Middlesbrough FC vs Norwich City FC — Middlesbrough FC to win: ✅ Won (+0.78u, CLV +0.5pp)
• FC Twente '65 vs ADO Den Haag — FC Twente '65 +0: ✅ Won (+0.44u, CLV +3.1pp)
• RC Strasbourg Alsace vs AS Monaco FC — AS Monaco FC -0.25: ½ lost (-0.55u, CLV -2.0pp)
• Athletic Club vs Elche CF — Under2.5: ✅ Won (+1.46u, CLV +10.2pp)
• Athletic Club vs Elche CF — Athletic Club to win: ❌ Lost (-3.75u, CLV +2.9pp)
• Tottenham Hotspur FC vs Everton FC — Under2.5: ✅ Won (+1.49u, CLV +10.1pp)
• 1. FC Köln vs SV Werder Bremen — SV Werder Bremen +0.50: ✅ Won (+1.20u, CLV +0.0pp)
• Casa Pia AC vs FC Porto — FC Porto to win: ✅ Won (+0.90u, CLV +2.5pp)
• FC Lorient vs Toulouse FC — FC Lorient to win: ❌ Lost (-0.93u, CLV +2.9pp)
• SC Cambuur-Leeuwarden vs NEC — Over3.5: ❌ Lost (-0.65u, CLV +0.0pp)
• Real Madrid CF vs Rayo Vallecano de Madrid — Under3.5: ❌ Lost (-1.18u, CLV +11.9pp)

Baseball

• San Francisco Giants vs San Diego Padres — San Diego Padres: ❌ Lost (-1.05u, CLV -11.0pp)
• Milwaukee Brewers vs Cincinnati Reds — Over 8.5: ✅ Won (+1.32u, CLV +8.7pp)
• Atlanta Braves vs Philadelphia Phillies — Philadelphia Phillies: ✅ Won (+1.10u, CLV +20.0pp)
• Athletics vs Seattle Mariners — Under 9.5: ❌ Lost (-1.20u, CLV +2.1pp)
• Athletics vs Seattle Mariners — Seattle Mariners: ❌ Lost (-1.24u, CLV +7.7pp)

8

• Virginia Tech vs Old Dominion — Virginia Tech -18.5: ✅ Won (+1.39u)
• Oklahoma State vs Oregon — Oklahoma State +23.5: ✅ Won (+1.52u)
• Oklahoma State vs Oregon — Over 55.5: ✅ Won (+2.11u, CLV +1.0pp)
• Army vs South Florida — Over 46.5: ✅ Won (+1.00u, CLV +0.0pp)
• Kansas State vs Washington State — Over 49.5: ❌ Lost (-2.99u, CLV +0.0pp)
• Virginia Tech vs Old Dominion — Over 48.0: ✅ Won (+3.93u, CLV +3.1pp)
• Georgia vs Western Kentucky — Western Kentucky +40.0: ❌ Lost (-1.37u)

9

• David Martinez vs Dan Ige — David Martinez: ✅ Won (+1.30u, CLV +1.6pp)
• Waldo Cortes Acosta vs Curtis Blaydes — Curtis Blaydes: ✅ Won (+1.79u, CLV +6.2pp)

What it means

A single night is noise — the metric that matters is closing line value across hundreds of bets. Beat the sharpest books' closing line consistently and profit follows over time, regardless of any one bet's result. The full, continuously-updated record is in the open on our track record.