Value Bet Results — 2026-10-04: 9-6, +2.2 units

The results

Here's how our value bets from 2026-10-04 settled — honestly, wins and losses. The bottom line: 9-6 across 16 bets, +2.2 units, average CLV +6.1pp.

Tennis

• Alex De Minaur vs Andrey Rublev — Under 22.5: ❌ Lost (-1.82u, CLV +3.1pp)
• Donna Vekic vs Iga Swiatek — Over 18.5: ➖ Void (+0.00u)

Hockey

• Detroit Red Wings vs Winnipeg Jets — Under 5.5: ✅ Won (+1.60u, CLV +1.0pp)
• Anaheim Ducks vs Florida Panthers — Over 6.5: ❌ Lost (-2.15u, CLV +17.0pp)

Baseball

• Los Angeles Dodgers vs Atlanta Braves — Atlanta Braves: ❌ Lost (-2.41u, CLV +9.1pp)

7

• Washington Commanders vs Indianapolis Colts — Indianapolis Colts -4.5: ✅ Won (+1.74u)
• Washington Commanders vs Indianapolis Colts — Indianapolis Colts: ✅ Won (+1.18u, CLV +9.9pp)
• Cincinnati Bengals vs Jacksonville Jaguars — Jacksonville Jaguars: ❌ Lost (-0.81u, CLV -2.8pp)
• Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Green Bay Packers — Green Bay Packers: ✅ Won (+0.63u, CLV +30.3pp)
• Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Green Bay Packers — Green Bay Packers -3.5: ❌ Lost (-1.25u)
• New York Giants vs Arizona Cardinals — Arizona Cardinals: ✅ Won (+0.90u, CLV -44.3pp)
• Houston Texans vs Dallas Cowboys — Houston Texans -3.0: ❌ Lost (-1.57u)
• Chicago Bears vs New York Jets — New York Jets: ✅ Won (+0.79u, CLV +5.8pp)
• Chicago Bears vs New York Jets — Chicago Bears -3.5: ✅ Won (+2.13u)
• Minnesota Vikings vs Miami Dolphins — Miami Dolphins +10.0: ✅ Won (+1.87u)
• San Francisco 49ers vs Denver Broncos — San Francisco 49ers -3.0: ✅ Won (+1.36u)

What it means

A single night is noise — the metric that matters is closing line value across hundreds of bets. Beat the sharpest books' closing line consistently and profit follows over time, regardless of any one bet's result. The full, continuously-updated record is in the open on our track record.