Trevor Lawrence (Quarterback, JAX) enters the 2026 draft season as our model's QB5, projected for ~301 PPR points (overall rank 30). In the 2025 season they finished as the QB4 in PPR scoring. Projections come from prior-season form, usage and opponent strength — a data baseline for draft research, not a betting edge.
The market drafts Trevor Lawrence on average 61 spots LATER than our board (ADP rank 91 vs model rank 30) — potential draft value.
Pace assumes a full 17-game season at the player's current modelled per-game rate — it does not account for injury, role changes, suspensions or coaching decisions that can shift usage during the season. Data baseline for research, not a betting edge.
| Scoring | Proj pts | VOR | Tier | Overall | Pos rank | ADP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PPR | 301 | 56 | 2 | 30 | QB5 | 91.2 |
| Half-PPR | 301 | 56 | 2 | 23 | QB5 | 90.2 |
| Standard | 301 | 56 | 2 | 21 | QB5 | 88.4 |
| Season | G | Pass yds | Pass TD | INT | Car | Rush yds | Rush TD | PPR pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 17 | 4007 | 29 | 12 | 82 | 359 | 9 | 342 |
| 2024 | 10 | 2045 | 11 | 7 | 26 | 119 | 3 | 142 |
| 2023 | 16 | 4016 | 21 | 14 | 70 | 339 | 4 | 275 |
| 2022 | 17 | 4113 | 25 | 8 | 62 | 291 | 5 | 308 |
| 2021 | 17 | 3641 | 12 | 17 | 73 | 334 | 2 | 205 |
| Wk | Opp | Pass yds | Pass TD | INT | Car | Rush yds | Rush TD | PPR pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CAR | 178 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 12 | 0 | 10.3 |
| 2 | CIN | 271 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 19.2 |
| 3 | HOU | 222 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 | 7.8 |
| 4 | SF | 174 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 7 | 0 | 11.7 |
| 5 | KC | 221 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 54 | 2 | 28.2 |
| 6 | SEA | 258 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 9 | 0 | 19.2 |
| 7 | LA | 296 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 18 | 0 | 17.6 |
| 9 | LV | 220 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 24 | 2 | 21.2 |
| 10 | HOU | 158 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 35 | 0 | 11.8 |
| 11 | LAC | 153 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 9 | 1 | 15.0 |
| 12 | ARI | 256 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 29 | 0 | 19.1 |
| 13 | TEN | 229 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 25 | 0 | 19.7 |
| 14 | IND | 244 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 16 | 0 | 19.4 |
| 15 | NYJ | 330 | 5 | 0 | 5 | 51 | 1 | 44.3 |
| 16 | DEN | 279 | 3 | 0 | 6 | 20 | 1 | 31.2 |
| 17 | IND | 263 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 26 | 2 | 23.1 |
| 18 | TEN | 255 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 0 | 23.3 |