Bundesliga Weekend Preview: Model Predictions (Sep 18–21, 2026)
The weekend slate
9 Bundesliga fixtures run from Friday to Monday (Sep 18–21, 2026). Here is the full model pass: win probabilities, expected goals and recent form for every game. By our numbers the tightest game of the round is FC Bayern München vs 1. FC Union Berlin. All season-long numbers for the league live on our Bundesliga hub.
Fixture-by-fixture model read
FC Bayern München vs 1. FC Union Berlin — Fri, Sep 18, 20:30
Our model prices FC Bayern München at 88%, the draw at 10% and 1. FC Union Berlin at 1%. The model's expected total is ~4.5 goals, leaning Over 5 (~50%). Form (last 5, most recent first): FC Bayern München W-D-W-W-W, 1. FC Union Berlin L-L-D-W-W.
Find the bets where soft books misprice the odds.
See today's value bets — free accountEintracht Frankfurt vs SC Freiburg — Sat, Sep 19, 15:30
Form (last 5, most recent first): Eintracht Frankfurt W-L-D-D-L, SC Freiburg W-W-W-W-L.
SV Werder Bremen vs FC Augsburg — Sat, Sep 19, 15:30
Form (last 5, most recent first): SV Werder Bremen D-W-L-L-L, FC Augsburg D-W-W-L-W.
Hamburger SV vs 1. FC Köln — Sat, Sep 19, 15:30
Form (last 5, most recent first): Hamburger SV L-L-L-D-W, 1. FC Köln D-L-W-L-L.
Borussia Mönchengladbach vs 1. FSV Mainz 05 — Sat, Sep 19, 15:30
Form (last 5, most recent first): Borussia Mönchengladbach L-L-L-W-L, 1. FSV Mainz 05 L-W-D-W-L.
VfB Stuttgart vs Borussia Dortmund — Sat, Sep 19, 18:30
Form (last 5, most recent first): VfB Stuttgart L-W-L-D-W, Borussia Dortmund W-W-W-W-W.
Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs RB Leipzig — Sun, Sep 20, 15:30
Form (last 5, most recent first): Bayer 04 Leverkusen D-W-L-D-L, RB Leipzig W-L-W-L-W.
FC Schalke 04 vs SV 07 Elversberg — Sun, Sep 20, 17:30
Form (last 5, most recent first): FC Schalke 04 W-D-L-W-L, SV 07 Elversberg L-W-W-W-L.
SC Paderborn 07 vs TSG Hoffenheim — Sun, Sep 20, 19:30
Form (last 5, most recent first): SC Paderborn 07 L-L-D-W-D, TSG Hoffenheim W-L-L-L-W.
An honest caveat
A model probability is not a promise: across a single weekend even a well-calibrated model will "lose" several games — that is variance, not a defect. Our edge lives in the precision of the numbers versus the market, not in guessing winners. Every value bet the model flags runs openly into our track record — winners and losers alike. The actual picks stay members-only until they settle.