Bundesliga Weekend Preview: Model Predictions (Oct 9–12, 2026)
The weekend slate
9 Bundesliga fixtures run from Friday to Monday (Oct 9–12, 2026). Here is the full model pass: win probabilities, expected goals and recent form for every game. By our numbers the tightest game of the round is Borussia Dortmund vs SV Werder Bremen. All season-long numbers for the league live on our Bundesliga hub.
Fixture-by-fixture model read
Borussia Dortmund vs SV Werder Bremen — Fri, Oct 9, 20:30
Our model prices Borussia Dortmund at 75%, the draw at 19% and SV Werder Bremen at 6%. The model's expected total is ~3.4 goals, leaning Under 3.5 (~52%). Form (last 5, most recent first): Borussia Dortmund W-W-W-W-W, SV Werder Bremen W-D-W-L-L.
Find the bets where soft books misprice the odds.
See today's value bets — free accountSC Paderborn 07 vs VfB Stuttgart — Sat, Oct 10, 15:30
Form (last 5, most recent first): SC Paderborn 07 W-L-L-D-W, VfB Stuttgart L-L-W-L-D.
FC Augsburg vs FC Bayern München — Sat, Oct 10, 15:30
Form (last 5, most recent first): FC Augsburg L-D-W-W-L, FC Bayern München W-W-D-W-W.
1. FSV Mainz 05 vs Bayer 04 Leverkusen — Sat, Oct 10, 15:30
Form (last 5, most recent first): 1. FSV Mainz 05 W-L-W-D-W, Bayer 04 Leverkusen W-D-W-L-D.
TSG Hoffenheim vs Hamburger SV — Sat, Oct 10, 15:30
Form (last 5, most recent first): TSG Hoffenheim L-W-L-L-L, Hamburger SV W-L-L-L-D.
1. FC Union Berlin vs SV 07 Elversberg — Sat, Oct 10, 15:30
Form (last 5, most recent first): 1. FC Union Berlin L-L-L-D-W, SV 07 Elversberg D-L-W-W-W.
RB Leipzig vs Eintracht Frankfurt — Sat, Oct 10, 18:30
Form (last 5, most recent first): RB Leipzig L-W-L-W-L, Eintracht Frankfurt D-W-L-D-D.
1. FC Köln vs Borussia Mönchengladbach — Sun, Oct 11, 15:30
Form (last 5, most recent first): 1. FC Köln L-D-L-W-L, Borussia Mönchengladbach L-L-L-L-W.
SC Freiburg vs FC Schalke 04 — Sun, Oct 11, 17:30
Form (last 5, most recent first): SC Freiburg D-W-W-W-W, FC Schalke 04 D-W-D-L-W.
An honest caveat
A model probability is not a promise: across a single weekend even a well-calibrated model will "lose" several games — that is variance, not a defect. Our edge lives in the precision of the numbers versus the market, not in guessing winners. Every value bet the model flags runs openly into our track record — winners and losers alike. The actual picks stay members-only until they settle.
Reading Between the Form Lines
Recent form and model probability don't always point the same direction, and this round is a good illustration. SV Werder Bremen arrive at Dortmund with a W-D-W start to their last five before two losses — a résumé that looks more competitive than a 6% win chance suggests, a reminder that the model weighs opponent strength and underlying performance far more heavily than the raw W-D-L string.
The round's quietest story might be at the bottom of the form table. 1. FC Köln (L-D-L-W-L) host Borussia Mönchengladbach (L-L-L-L-W), and between them the two sides have managed just two wins in their combined last ten matches. Fixtures like this rarely offer a clean form signal — both teams are searching for consistency rather than carrying it in.
On the other end, FC Bayern München's W-W-D-W-W sits in stark contrast to FC Augsburg's choppy L-D-W-W-L, and SC Freiburg's W-W-W-W-D run at home is arguably the single best form line of the weekend. Hosting a Schalke side with an up-and-down D-W-D-L-W record, Freiburg's consistency is the kind of signal that tends to hold up better than one-off results.
TSG Hoffenheim's form — four losses in their last five — stands out as the roughest stretch of any team in action this round. Facing a Hamburger SV side that has also won just once in five, it's a matchup between two teams still searching for their footing rather than a clash of form and underlying quality pointing in opposite directions.
Included with every account — even the free one.