Bundesliga Weekend Recap: Results & Model Review (Sep 4–7, 2026)

The results

Here is how the Bundesliga weekend (Sep 4–7, 2026) played out — every result set against the model's pre-match lean. Bottom line: the model's 1X2 lean called 4 of 9 results. All season-long numbers for the league: Bundesliga hub.

• VfB Stuttgart 4–1 1. FC Köln — model lean: 1. FC Köln (95%) ❌
• SC Paderborn 07 0–1 SC Freiburg — model lean: SC Freiburg (77%) ✅
• Borussia Mönchengladbach 3–4 SV 07 Elversberg — model lean: SV 07 Elversberg (84%) ✅
• TSG Hoffenheim 2–3 Borussia Dortmund — model lean: Borussia Dortmund (81%) ✅
• Bayer 04 Leverkusen 4–0 1. FC Union Berlin — model lean: the draw (64%) ❌
• SV Werder Bremen 3–1 RB Leipzig — model lean: RB Leipzig (86%) ❌
• FC Schalke 04 0–0 FC Bayern München — model lean: FC Bayern München (90%) ❌
• Hamburger SV 0–5 1. FSV Mainz 05 — model lean: the draw (61%) ❌
• Eintracht Frankfurt 1–4 FC Augsburg — model lean: FC Augsburg (61%) ✅

Settled value bets

These bets are settled, which is why we can show them — winners and losers alike. Pending picks stay members-only.

• FC Schalke 04 vs FC Bayern München — FC Bayern München to win: ❌ Lost (-5.00u, CLV -3.3pp)

An honest read

One weekend is a tiny sample: 9 games tell you almost nothing about model quality — calibration across hundreds of matches does. That is why we grade ourselves on the open, running track record, not on a single round.