Championship Weekend Recap: Results & Model Review (Sep 4–7, 2026)

The results

Here is how the Championship weekend (Sep 4–7, 2026) played out — every result set against the model's pre-match lean. Bottom line: the model's 1X2 lean called 5 of 12 results. All season-long numbers for the league: Championship hub.

• Lincoln City FC 1–1 Southampton FC — model lean: the draw (46%) ✅
• Stoke City FC 4–0 Charlton Athletic FC — model lean: Charlton Athletic FC (77%) ❌
• Preston North End FC 2–1 Blackburn Rovers FC — model lean: Blackburn Rovers FC (53%) ❌
• Millwall FC 4–0 Bolton Wanderers FC — model lean: Millwall FC (50%) ✅
• Portsmouth FC 2–0 Cardiff City FC — model lean: the draw (45%) ❌
• Sheffield United FC 1–3 Norwich City FC — model lean: Sheffield United FC (48%) ❌
• Queens Park Rangers FC 0–1 Middlesbrough FC — model lean: Queens Park Rangers FC (67%) ❌
• West Ham United FC 3–0 Derby County FC — model lean: the draw (58%) ❌
• West Bromwich Albion FC 1–0 Watford FC — model lean: West Bromwich Albion FC (52%) ✅
• Burnley FC 1–2 Bristol City FC — model lean: Bristol City FC (63%) ✅
• Swansea City AFC 0–0 Wrexham AFC — model lean: Swansea City AFC (64%) ❌
• Birmingham City FC 2–2 Wolverhampton Wanderers FC — model lean: the draw (61%) ✅

Settled value bets

These bets are settled, which is why we can show them — winners and losers alike. Pending picks stay members-only.

• Lincoln City FC vs Southampton FC — Southampton FC +0: ➖ Void (+0.00u, CLV +1.8pp)
• Portsmouth FC vs Cardiff City FC — Portsmouth FC +0: ✅ Won (+1.88u, CLV +3.5pp)
• West Bromwich Albion FC vs Watford FC — West Bromwich Albion FC +0: ✅ Won (+2.09u, CLV +7.0pp)
• Swansea City AFC vs Wrexham AFC — Swansea City AFC -0.25: ½ won (+0.62u, CLV -8.7pp)

An honest read

One weekend is a tiny sample: 12 games tell you almost nothing about model quality — calibration across hundreds of matches does. That is why we grade ourselves on the open, running track record, not on a single round.