Eredivisie Weekend Recap: Results & Model Review (Sep 4–7, 2026)

The results

Here is how the Eredivisie weekend (Sep 4–7, 2026) played out — every result set against the model's pre-match lean. Bottom line: the model's 1X2 lean called 5 of 8 results. All season-long numbers for the league: Eredivisie hub.

• Sparta Rotterdam 2–2 PEC Zwolle — model lean: the draw (56%) ✅
• NEC 1–3 Feyenoord Rotterdam — model lean: the draw (64%) ❌
• AFC Ajax 1–3 PSV — model lean: the draw (46%) ❌
• Willem II Tilburg 0–3 SBV Excelsior — model lean: SBV Excelsior (53%) ✅
• FC Groningen 2–2 FC Twente '65 — model lean: the draw (57%) ✅
• Telstar 1963 2–2 SC Cambuur-Leeuwarden — model lean: Telstar 1963 (49%) ❌
• SC Heerenveen 2–3 AZ — model lean: AZ (71%) ✅
• ADO Den Haag 2–3 Fortuna Sittard — model lean: Fortuna Sittard (81%) ✅

Settled value bets

These bets are settled, which is why we can show them — winners and losers alike. Pending picks stay members-only.

• NEC vs Feyenoord Rotterdam — NEC +0.25: ❌ Lost (-1.59u, CLV +3.2pp)
• NEC vs Feyenoord Rotterdam — Over3.5: ✅ Won (+1.13u, CLV -1.0pp)
• FC Groningen vs FC Twente '65 — FC Groningen +0.25: ½ won (+0.77u, CLV +0.0pp)

An honest read

One weekend is a tiny sample: 8 games tell you almost nothing about model quality — calibration across hundreds of matches does. That is why we grade ourselves on the open, running track record, not on a single round.