Bundesliga Weekend Recap: Results & Model Review (Oct 9–12, 2026)

The results

Here is how the Bundesliga weekend (Oct 9–12, 2026) played out — every result set against the model's pre-match lean. Bottom line: the model's 1X2 lean called 2 of 9 results. All season-long numbers for the league: Bundesliga hub.

• Borussia Dortmund 2–2 SV Werder Bremen — model lean: Borussia Dortmund (75%) ❌
• SC Paderborn 07 0–2 VfB Stuttgart — model lean: SC Paderborn 07 (49%) ❌
• FC Augsburg 2–2 FC Bayern München — model lean: FC Bayern München (65%) ❌
• TSG Hoffenheim 2–3 Hamburger SV — model lean: the draw (64%) ❌
• 1. FSV Mainz 05 3–4 Bayer 04 Leverkusen — model lean: the draw (43%) ❌
• 1. FC Union Berlin 1–0 SV 07 Elversberg — model lean: SV 07 Elversberg (66%) ❌
• RB Leipzig 6–0 Eintracht Frankfurt — model lean: the draw (43%) ❌
• 1. FC Köln 2–1 Borussia Mönchengladbach — model lean: 1. FC Köln (47%) ✅
• SC Freiburg 2–1 FC Schalke 04 — model lean: SC Freiburg (63%) ✅

Settled value bets

These bets are settled, which is why we can show them — winners and losers alike. Pending picks stay members-only.

• Borussia Dortmund vs SV Werder Bremen — Borussia Dortmund -1.50: ❌ Lost (-2.03u, CLV -5.0pp)
• FC Augsburg vs FC Bayern München — Over4.5: ❌ Lost (-0.51u, CLV +3.7pp)
• 1. FSV Mainz 05 vs Bayer 04 Leverkusen — 1. FSV Mainz 05 to win: ❌ Lost (-0.58u, CLV -4.6pp)
• 1. FC Köln vs Borussia Mönchengladbach — 1. FC Köln to win: ✅ Won (+2.03u, CLV +13.0pp)
• SC Freiburg vs FC Schalke 04 — SC Freiburg to win: ✅ Won (+2.29u, CLV +2.4pp)

An honest read

One weekend is a tiny sample: 9 games tell you almost nothing about model quality — calibration across hundreds of matches does. That is why we grade ourselves on the open, running track record, not on a single round.