Championship Weekend Preview: Model Predictions (Sep 18–21, 2026)

The weekend slate

12 Championship fixtures run from Friday to Monday (Sep 18–21, 2026). Here is the full model pass: win probabilities, expected goals and recent form for every game. By our numbers the tightest game of the round is Bristol City FC vs Watford FC. All season-long numbers for the league live on our Championship hub.

Fixture-by-fixture model read

Bristol City FC vs Watford FC — Fri, Sep 18, 21:00

Our model prices Bristol City FC at 47%, the draw at 29% and Watford FC at 25%. The model's expected total is ~2.7 goals, leaning Over 2.5 (~51%). Form (last 5, most recent first): Bristol City FC L-L-W-W-W, Watford FC L-W-L-L-D.

Cardiff City FC vs Charlton Athletic FC — Sat, Sep 19, 13:30

Form (last 5, most recent first): Cardiff City FC L-D-L-L-D, Charlton Athletic FC D-D-L-D-W.

Millwall FC vs West Ham United FC — Sat, Sep 19, 13:30

Form (last 5, most recent first): Millwall FC D-L-W-L-L, West Ham United FC W-W-W-W-D.

Stoke City FC vs Sheffield United FC — Sat, Sep 19, 13:30

Form (last 5, most recent first): Stoke City FC W-D-W-W-L, Sheffield United FC L-W-L-W-D.

Wrexham AFC vs Southampton FC — Sat, Sep 19, 16:00

Form (last 5, most recent first): Wrexham AFC L-D-D-W-L, Southampton FC W-W-D-D-W.

Queens Park Rangers FC vs Preston North End FC — Sat, Sep 19, 16:00

Form (last 5, most recent first): Queens Park Rangers FC D-D-L-W-W, Preston North End FC L-L-W-L-L.

Portsmouth FC vs Blackburn Rovers FC — Sat, Sep 19, 16:00

Form (last 5, most recent first): Portsmouth FC D-W-L-L-W, Blackburn Rovers FC W-L-L-D-L.

Birmingham City FC vs Middlesbrough FC — Sat, Sep 19, 16:00

Form (last 5, most recent first): Birmingham City FC W-L-D-D-W, Middlesbrough FC D-W-W-D-W.

Lincoln City FC vs Swansea City AFC — Sat, Sep 19, 16:00

Form (last 5, most recent first): Lincoln City FC W-W-D-D-W, Swansea City AFC W-L-D-W-W.

Burnley FC vs Derby County FC — Sat, Sep 19, 16:00

Form (last 5, most recent first): Burnley FC L-D-L-D-L, Derby County FC L-L-L-W-L.

Wolverhampton Wanderers FC vs West Bromwich Albion FC — Sun, Sep 20, 13:00

Form (last 5, most recent first): Wolverhampton Wanderers FC W-D-L-W-W, West Bromwich Albion FC D-W-W-D-L.

Norwich City FC vs Bolton Wanderers FC — Sun, Sep 20, 14:30

Form (last 5, most recent first): Norwich City FC L-W-W-L-W, Bolton Wanderers FC W-L-L-L-L.

An honest caveat

A model probability is not a promise: across a single weekend even a well-calibrated model will "lose" several games — that is variance, not a defect. Our edge lives in the precision of the numbers versus the market, not in guessing winners. Every value bet the model flags runs openly into our track record — winners and losers alike. The actual picks stay members-only until they settle.