Championship Weekend Recap: Results & Model Review (Oct 9–12, 2026)

The results

Here is how the Championship weekend (Oct 9–12, 2026) played out — every result set against the model's pre-match lean. Bottom line: the model's 1X2 lean called 6 of 12 results. All season-long numbers for the league: Championship hub.

• West Ham United FC 1–1 Queens Park Rangers FC — model lean: West Ham United FC (61%) ❌
• Swansea City AFC 2–1 Norwich City FC — model lean: Swansea City AFC (57%) ✅
• Charlton Athletic FC 1–1 Bristol City FC — model lean: the draw (37%) ✅
• West Bromwich Albion FC 0–1 Birmingham City FC — model lean: West Bromwich Albion FC (52%) ❌
• Blackburn Rovers FC 2–1 Cardiff City FC — model lean: the draw (42%) ❌
• Watford FC 0–4 Burnley FC — model lean: Watford FC (67%) ❌
• Middlesbrough FC 1–0 Wolverhampton Wanderers FC — model lean: Middlesbrough FC (38%) ✅
• Sheffield United FC 3–0 Lincoln City FC — model lean: the draw (45%) ❌
• Bolton Wanderers FC 1–2 Stoke City FC — model lean: the draw (34%) ❌
• Derby County FC 1–1 Wrexham AFC — model lean: the draw (47%) ✅
• Preston North End FC 0–1 Millwall FC — model lean: Millwall FC (65%) ✅
• Southampton FC 1–0 Portsmouth FC — model lean: Southampton FC (55%) ✅

Settled value bets

These bets are settled, which is why we can show them — winners and losers alike. Pending picks stay members-only.

• West Bromwich Albion FC vs Birmingham City FC — the draw: ❌ Lost (-0.62u, CLV +5.9pp)
• Middlesbrough FC vs Wolverhampton Wanderers FC — Wolverhampton Wanderers FC +0: ❌ Lost (-1.18u, CLV +0.6pp)
• Sheffield United FC vs Lincoln City FC — Lincoln City FC to win: ❌ Lost (-0.63u, CLV +1.2pp)
• Bolton Wanderers FC vs Stoke City FC — Bolton Wanderers FC +0: ❌ Lost (-2.15u, CLV +12.9pp)

An honest read

One weekend is a tiny sample: 12 games tell you almost nothing about model quality — calibration across hundreds of matches does. That is why we grade ourselves on the open, running track record, not on a single round.