2026 College Football Win Total Projections — Top 25 & Conference Favorites
Which team wins the most games in 2026? Our Elo simulation runs the full FBS schedule 2,000 times (12-team CFP format: Power-4 champs + the best G5 champ + at-large bids) — the same numbers behind our college football hub.
Top 25 — projected win totals
- 1. Notre Dame (FBS Independents) — 10.3 wins, 92% CFP chance
- 2. Indiana (Big Ten) — 9.5 wins, 81% CFP chance
- 3. Texas Tech (Big 12) — 9.2 wins, 74% CFP chance
- 4. Miami (ACC) — 9.1 wins, 74% CFP chance
- 5. Ohio State (Big Ten) — 9.0 wins, 66% CFP chance
- 6. Penn State (Big Ten) — 9.0 wins, 54% CFP chance
- 7. Oregon (Big Ten) — 9.0 wins, 69% CFP chance
- 8. James Madison (Sun Belt) — 8.8 wins, 55% CFP chance
- 9. Georgia (SEC) — 8.8 wins, 61% CFP chance
- 10. Texas (SEC) — 8.4 wins, 46% CFP chance
- 11. Tulane (American Athletic) — 8.4 wins, 31% CFP chance
- 12. UNLV (Mountain West) — 8.3 wins, 26% CFP chance
- 13. Ole Miss (SEC) — 8.3 wins, 44% CFP chance
- 14. Utah (Big 12) — 8.3 wins, 44% CFP chance
- 15. SMU (ACC) — 8.2 wins, 36% CFP chance
- 16. Ohio (Mid-American) — 8.1 wins, 21% CFP chance
- 17. Old Dominion (Sun Belt) — 8.0 wins, 23% CFP chance
- 18. Hawai'i (Mountain West) — 7.9 wins, 16% CFP chance
- 19. Navy (American Athletic) — 7.8 wins, 17% CFP chance
- 20. BYU (Big 12) — 7.8 wins, 26% CFP chance
- 21. Alabama (SEC) — 7.7 wins, 23% CFP chance
- 22. Toledo (Mid-American) — 7.7 wins, 11% CFP chance
- 23. Iowa (Big Ten) — 7.6 wins, 20% CFP chance
- 24. Western Michigan (Mid-American) — 7.5 wins, 8% CFP chance
- 25. USC (Big Ten) — 7.4 wins, 14% CFP chance
Conference favorites
- FBS Independents: Notre Dame — 10.3 wins
- Big Ten: Indiana — 9.5 wins
- Big 12: Texas Tech — 9.2 wins
- ACC: Miami — 9.1 wins
- Sun Belt: James Madison — 8.8 wins
- SEC: Georgia — 8.8 wins
- American Athletic: Tulane — 8.4 wins
- Mountain West: UNLV — 8.3 wins
- Mid-American: Ohio — 8.1 wins
- Conference USA: Kennesaw State — 6.7 wins
- Pac-12: Fresno State — 6.6 wins
- Independent: Charlotte — 1.7 wins
Every simulated FBS team grouped by conference, sortable: college football win totals. Simulation last updated: July 21, 2026.
This is a model projection from our Monte Carlo season simulation — not a sportsbook win-total line. We don't collect or display bookmaker win-total prices here. For entertainment and informational purposes only. 18+.
Unlock our value bets for every college football game — start free