2026 College Football Win Total Projections — Top 25 & Conference Favorites
Which team wins the most games in 2026? Our Elo simulation runs the full FBS schedule 2,000 times (12-team CFP format: Power-4 champs + the best G5 champ + at-large bids) — the same numbers behind our college football hub.
Top 25 — projected win totals
- 1. Miami (ACC) — 5.7 wins, 88% CFP chance
- 2. Texas Tech (Big 12) — 5.3 wins, 66% CFP chance
- 3. James Madison (Sun Belt) — 5.1 wins, 74% CFP chance
- 4. BYU (Big 12) — 5.0 wins, 61% CFP chance
- 5. Utah (Big 12) — 4.9 wins, 62% CFP chance
- 6. Georgia (SEC) — 4.8 wins, 64% CFP chance
- 7. Texas (SEC) — 4.8 wins, 53% CFP chance
- 8. SMU (ACC) — 4.7 wins, 37% CFP chance
- 9. Indiana (Big Ten) — 4.7 wins, 61% CFP chance
- 10. Oregon (Big Ten) — 4.7 wins, 46% CFP chance
- 11. New Mexico (Mountain West) — 4.5 wins, 23% CFP chance
- 12. North Dakota State (Mountain West) — 4.4 wins, 13% CFP chance
- 13. Army (American Athletic) — 4.4 wins, 20% CFP chance
- 14. UCLA (Big Ten) — 4.4 wins, 21% CFP chance
- 15. Ohio (Mid-American) — 4.4 wins, 16% CFP chance
- 16. Tulane (American Athletic) — 4.3 wins, 17% CFP chance
- 17. East Carolina (American Athletic) — 4.2 wins, 14% CFP chance
- 18. Notre Dame (FBS Independents) — 4.2 wins, 35% CFP chance
- 19. Liberty (Conference USA) — 4.2 wins, 12% CFP chance
- 20. Wisconsin (Big Ten) — 4.2 wins, 21% CFP chance
- 21. UNLV (Mountain West) — 4.2 wins, 13% CFP chance
- 22. Western Michigan (Mid-American) — 4.1 wins, 8% CFP chance
- 23. Boise State (Pac-12) — 4.1 wins, 17% CFP chance
- 24. Houston (Big 12) — 4.1 wins, 18% CFP chance
- 25. Iowa (Big Ten) — 4.1 wins, 24% CFP chance
Conference favorites
- ACC: Miami — 5.7 wins
- Big 12: Texas Tech — 5.3 wins
- Sun Belt: James Madison — 5.1 wins
- SEC: Georgia — 4.8 wins
- Big Ten: Indiana — 4.7 wins
- Mountain West: New Mexico — 4.5 wins
- American Athletic: Army — 4.4 wins
- Mid-American: Ohio — 4.4 wins
- FBS Independents: Notre Dame — 4.2 wins
- Conference USA: Liberty — 4.2 wins
- Pac-12: Boise State — 4.1 wins
- Independent: Charlotte — 1.3 wins
Every simulated FBS team grouped by conference, sortable: college football win totals. Simulation last updated: October 15, 2026.
This is a model projection from our Monte Carlo season simulation — not a sportsbook win-total line. We don't collect or display bookmaker win-total prices here. For entertainment and informational purposes only. 18+.
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