Eredivisie Weekend Preview: Model Predictions (Aug 14–17, 2026)

The weekend slate

9 Eredivisie fixtures run from Friday to Monday (Aug 14–17, 2026). Here is the full model pass: win probabilities, expected goals and recent form for every game. By our numbers the tightest game of the round is Telstar 1963 vs Sparta Rotterdam. All season-long numbers for the league live on our Eredivisie hub.

Fixture-by-fixture model read

Telstar 1963 vs Sparta Rotterdam — Fri, Aug 14, 20:00

Our model prices Telstar 1963 at 85%, the draw at 12% and Sparta Rotterdam at 2%. The model's expected total is ~2.6 goals, leaning Under 3 (~65%). Form (last 5, most recent first): Telstar 1963 W-W-W-D-W, Sparta Rotterdam L-L-L-D-L.

Willem II Tilburg vs NEC — Sat, Aug 15, 16:30

Form (last 5, most recent first): Willem II Tilburg L, NEC L-W-L-D-D.

FC Utrecht vs AZ — Sat, Aug 15, 18:45

Form (last 5, most recent first): FC Utrecht L-W-W-W-L, AZ W-D-D-D-D.

SBV Excelsior vs PSV — Sat, Aug 15, 20:00

Form (last 5, most recent first): SBV Excelsior W-W-D-W-W, PSV D-W-W-D-W.

Fortuna Sittard vs SC Cambuur-Leeuwarden — Sat, Aug 15, 21:00

Form (last 5, most recent first): Fortuna Sittard D-L-W-L-L, SC Cambuur-Leeuwarden L.

ADO Den Haag vs FC Groningen — Sun, Aug 16, 12:15

Form (last 5, most recent first): ADO Den Haag L, FC Groningen W-W-W-L-L.

Feyenoord Rotterdam vs Go Ahead Eagles — Sun, Aug 16, 14:30

Form (last 5, most recent first): Feyenoord Rotterdam W-W-D-W-W, Go Ahead Eagles W-L-L-D-D.

FC Twente '65 vs PEC Zwolle — Sun, Aug 16, 14:30

Form (last 5, most recent first): FC Twente '65 L-L-W-D-D, PEC Zwolle L-L-L-W-L.

AFC Ajax vs SC Heerenveen — Sun, Aug 16, 16:45

Form (last 5, most recent first): AFC Ajax W-D-L-D-W, SC Heerenveen W-D-L-W-W.

An honest caveat

A model probability is not a promise: across a single weekend even a well-calibrated model will "lose" several games — that is variance, not a defect. Our edge lives in the precision of the numbers versus the market, not in guessing winners. Every value bet the model flags runs openly into our track record — winners and losers alike. The actual picks stay members-only until they settle.