Eredivisie Weekend Recap: Results & Model Review (Aug 7–10, 2026)

The results

Here is how the Eredivisie weekend (Aug 7–10, 2026) played out — every result set against the model's pre-match lean. Bottom line: the model's 1X2 lean called 4 of 9 results. All season-long numbers for the league: Eredivisie hub.

• SC Cambuur-Leeuwarden 0–4 SBV Excelsior — model lean: SC Cambuur-Leeuwarden (46%) ❌
• NEC 1–2 Telstar 1963 — model lean: the draw (41%) ❌
• Go Ahead Eagles 4–1 Willem II Tilburg — model lean: Go Ahead Eagles (50%) ✅
• PSV 2–2 Fortuna Sittard — model lean: PSV (75%) ❌
• AZ 2–0 ADO Den Haag — model lean: AZ (52%) ✅
• Sparta Rotterdam 0–1 Feyenoord Rotterdam — model lean: Feyenoord Rotterdam (64%) ✅
• FC Groningen 2–1 FC Utrecht — model lean: FC Utrecht (35%) ❌
• PEC Zwolle 0–2 AFC Ajax — model lean: AFC Ajax (51%) ✅
• SC Heerenveen 1–0 FC Twente '65 — model lean: FC Twente '65 (44%) ❌

Settled value bets

These bets are settled, which is why we can show them — winners and losers alike. Pending picks stay members-only.

• SC Cambuur-Leeuwarden vs SBV Excelsior — Under2.75: ❌ Lost (-1.41u, CLV -0.5pp)
• Go Ahead Eagles vs Willem II Tilburg — Under2.5: ❌ Lost (-3.22u, CLV -1.3pp)
• Sparta Rotterdam vs Feyenoord Rotterdam — Feyenoord Rotterdam +0: ✅ Won (+2.03u, CLV +7.9pp)
• FC Groningen vs FC Utrecht — FC Utrecht +0: ❌ Lost (-1.40u, CLV +7.6pp)
• FC Groningen vs FC Utrecht — Over2.5: ✅ Won (+1.51u, CLV +0.0pp)
• SC Heerenveen vs FC Twente '65 — FC Twente '65 +0: ❌ Lost (-3.06u, CLV +8.5pp)

An honest read

One weekend is a tiny sample: 9 games tell you almost nothing about model quality — calibration across hundreds of matches does. That is why we grade ourselves on the open, running track record, not on a single round.