Primeira Liga Weekend Recap: Results & Model Review (Aug 7–10, 2026)

The results

Here is how the Primeira Liga weekend (Aug 7–10, 2026) played out — every result set against the model's pre-match lean. Bottom line: the model's 1X2 lean called 2 of 8 results. All season-long numbers for the league: Primeira Liga hub.

• GD Estoril Praia 1–1 FC Famalicão — model lean: FC Famalicão (43%) ❌
• CS Marítimo 1–0 Casa Pia AC — model lean: CS Marítimo (40%) ✅
• Vitória SC 0–1 FC Arouca — model lean: Vitória SC (64%) ❌
• CF Estrela da Amadora 2–2 Sporting Clube de Portugal — model lean: Sporting Clube de Portugal (46%) ❌
• FC Porto 2–0 FC Alverca — model lean: FC Porto (79%) ✅
• Moreirense FC 2–2 Sporting Clube de Braga — model lean: Sporting Clube de Braga (62%) ❌
• Sport Lisboa e Benfica 2–2 Académico de Viseu FC — model lean: Sport Lisboa e Benfica (70%) ❌
• Gil Vicente FC 1–0 Rio Ave FC — model lean: Rio Ave FC (36%) ❌

Settled value bets

These bets are settled, which is why we can show them — winners and losers alike. Pending picks stay members-only.

• GD Estoril Praia vs FC Famalicão — Under2.5: ✅ Won (+1.66u, CLV +0.0pp)
• CS Marítimo vs Casa Pia AC — CS Marítimo +0: ✅ Won (+1.74u, CLV -6.3pp)
• CS Marítimo vs Casa Pia AC — Over2.5: ❌ Lost (-1.31u, CLV +7.8pp)
• Gil Vicente FC vs Rio Ave FC — the draw: ❌ Lost (-0.83u, CLV +7.0pp)

An honest read

One weekend is a tiny sample: 8 games tell you almost nothing about model quality — calibration across hundreds of matches does. That is why we grade ourselves on the open, running track record, not on a single round.