NFL Fantasy Start/Sit — Week 1 Monday Night Football (2026)

Why Week 1 Projections Are the Shakiest of the Season

Season openers are the one week where our score has to lean almost entirely on last year's numbers — there's no in-season EPA or usage data yet, which is why the opponent-strength factor defaults to Elo instead of the efficiency metrics we use later. That's a meaningful caveat for a divisional opener like Broncos-Chiefs, where offseason coordinator changes, new O-line combinations, and unresolved depth-chart battles can shift usage patterns that a 2025-based projection simply can't see coming.

Historically, Broncos-Chiefs games under a defense-first approach have skewed toward tighter scorelines and lower offensive ceilings than the average AFC West matchup — worth flagging for anyone projecting skill-position upside into this specific game script, even though one data point (or a handful of prior meetings) is far from a guarantee of how this particular Week 1 script will play out.

Kickoff-week roster uncertainty compounds the issue: teams often manage snap counts conservatively in the opener as players shake off preseason rust, which can suppress workload for backs and receivers who'll see fuller roles by Week 3 or 4. If a name isn't showing up prominently on the board yet, that absence is as informative as a ranking — it usually means the underlying usage signal simply isn't there yet, not that the player lacks talent.