Ligue 1 Weekend Preview: Model Predictions (Oct 23–26, 2026)

The weekend slate

9 Ligue 1 fixtures run from Friday to Monday (Oct 23–26, 2026). Here is the full model pass: win probabilities, expected goals and recent form for every game. By our numbers the tightest game of the round is Stade Brestois 29 vs OGC Nice. All season-long numbers for the league live on our Ligue 1 hub.

Fixture-by-fixture model read

Stade Brestois 29 vs OGC Nice — Fri, Oct 23, 20:45

Our model prices Stade Brestois 29 at 46%, the draw at 36% and OGC Nice at 18%. The model's expected total is ~2.8 goals, leaning Over 2.5 (~59%). Form (last 5, most recent first): Stade Brestois 29 D-W-L-L-W, OGC Nice L-W-W-L-D.

Racing Club de Lens vs Paris FC — Sat, Oct 24, 20:45

Form (last 5, most recent first): Racing Club de Lens L-W-L-W-L, Paris FC W-L-W-D-W.

AS Monaco FC vs Lille OSC — Sun, Oct 25, 15:00

Form (last 5, most recent first): AS Monaco FC L-D-W-D-W, Lille OSC L-D-L-W-L.

Toulouse FC vs ES Troyes AC — Sun, Oct 25, 17:15

Form (last 5, most recent first): Toulouse FC W-D-W-D-L, ES Troyes AC L-L-L-L-L.

Olympique de Marseille vs Le Havre AC — Sun, Oct 25, 17:15

Form (last 5, most recent first): Olympique de Marseille W-W-L-L-L, Le Havre AC L-L-L-D-L.

Stade Rennais FC 1901 vs RC Strasbourg Alsace — Sun, Oct 25, 17:15

Form (last 5, most recent first): Stade Rennais FC 1901 L-W-L-W-W, RC Strasbourg Alsace L-L-L-D-W.

Angers SCO vs FC Lorient — Sun, Oct 25, 17:15

Form (last 5, most recent first): Angers SCO L-L-W-D-L, FC Lorient W-W-L-D-W.

AJ Auxerre vs Le Mans FC — Sun, Oct 25, 17:15

Form (last 5, most recent first): AJ Auxerre W-L-W-W-L, Le Mans FC L-L-W-D-D.

Paris Saint-Germain FC vs Olympique Lyonnais — Sun, Oct 25, 20:45

Form (last 5, most recent first): Paris Saint-Germain FC W-W-W-W-W, Olympique Lyonnais W-L-W-D-W.

An honest caveat

A model probability is not a promise: across a single weekend even a well-calibrated model will "lose" several games — that is variance, not a defect. Our edge lives in the precision of the numbers versus the market, not in guessing winners. Every value bet the model flags runs openly into our track record — winners and losers alike. The actual picks stay members-only until they settle.