Ligue 1 Weekend Recap: Results & Model Review (Oct 9–12, 2026)

The results

Here is how the Ligue 1 weekend (Oct 9–12, 2026) played out — every result set against the model's pre-match lean. Bottom line: the model's 1X2 lean called 3 of 9 results. All season-long numbers for the league: Ligue 1 hub.

• Racing Club de Lens 2–1 Olympique Lyonnais — model lean: Olympique Lyonnais (67%) ❌
• Lille OSC 1–0 Le Havre AC — model lean: Lille OSC (79%) ✅
• AS Monaco FC 2–2 Toulouse FC — model lean: AS Monaco FC (78%) ❌
• FC Lorient 1–0 Paris FC — model lean: Paris FC (66%) ❌
• Stade Brestois 29 5–1 Angers SCO — model lean: the draw (51%) ❌
• Paris Saint-Germain FC 3–1 Le Mans FC — model lean: Paris Saint-Germain FC (66%) ✅
• OGC Nice 2–1 RC Strasbourg Alsace — model lean: the draw (49%) ❌
• Stade Rennais FC 1901 4–1 AJ Auxerre — model lean: Stade Rennais FC 1901 (65%) ✅
• ES Troyes AC 0–2 Olympique de Marseille — model lean: the draw (57%) ❌

An honest read

One weekend is a tiny sample: 9 games tell you almost nothing about model quality — calibration across hundreds of matches does. That is why we grade ourselves on the open, running track record, not on a single round.