2026 NFL Win Total Projections — All 32 Teams
How many games will each NFL team win in 2026? Our season simulator runs the complete schedule 10,000 times with Monte Carlo methods, driven by Elo-style power ratings built from last season's results. The output: a projected win total per team plus playoff chance — the same numbers behind our NFL hub.
Highest projected win totals (2026)
- Seattle Seahawks (NFC West) — 11.0 wins, 84% playoff chance
- Los Angeles Rams (NFC West) — 10.7 wins, 79% playoff chance
- New England Patriots (AFC East) — 10.5 wins, 80% playoff chance
- Jacksonville Jaguars (AFC South) — 10.3 wins, 75% playoff chance
- Houston Texans (AFC South) — 10.0 wins, 69% playoff chance
Lowest projected win totals
- New York Jets (AFC East) — 5.7 wins, 6% playoff chance
- Las Vegas Raiders (AFC West) — 5.7 wins, 6% playoff chance
- Tennessee Titans (AFC South) — 5.8 wins, 6% playoff chance
- Arizona Cardinals (NFC West) — 6.5 wins, 9% playoff chance
- Washington Commanders (NFC East) — 7.1 wins, 19% playoff chance
The tightest division races
- NFC South: Tampa Bay Buccaneers 8.3 vs Atlanta Falcons 8.2 wins (gap 0.1)
- AFC South: Jacksonville Jaguars 10.3 vs Houston Texans 10.0 wins (gap 0.3)
- NFC West: Seattle Seahawks 11.0 vs Los Angeles Rams 10.7 wins (gap 0.3)
See the full, sortable table for all 32 teams (grouped by division) on our NFL win totals page. Simulation last updated: July 21, 2026.
This is a model projection from our Monte Carlo season simulation — not a sportsbook win-total line. We don't collect or display bookmaker win-total prices here. For entertainment and informational purposes only. 18+.
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