2026 NFL Win Total Projections — All 32 Teams

How many games will each NFL team win in 2026? Our season simulator runs the complete schedule 10,000 times with Monte Carlo methods, driven by Elo-style power ratings built from last season's results. The output: a projected win total per team plus playoff chance — the same numbers behind our NFL hub.

Highest projected win totals (2026)

• San Francisco 49ers (NFC West) — 11.7 wins, 92% playoff chance
• Jacksonville Jaguars (AFC South) — 11.3 wins, 91% playoff chance
• Buffalo Bills (AFC East) — 11.2 wins, 90% playoff chance
• Minnesota Vikings (NFC North) — 11.1 wins, 86% playoff chance
• New England Patriots (AFC East) — 10.7 wins, 84% playoff chance

Lowest projected win totals

• Tennessee Titans (AFC South) — 4.0 wins, 0% playoff chance
• Miami Dolphins (AFC East) — 4.9 wins, 1% playoff chance
• Arizona Cardinals (NFC West) — 5.8 wins, 2% playoff chance
• New York Jets (AFC East) — 5.9 wins, 3% playoff chance
• Los Angeles Chargers (AFC West) — 5.9 wins, 3% playoff chance

The tightest division races

• NFC South: Atlanta Falcons 7.9 vs Carolina Panthers 7.8 wins (gap 0.1)
• AFC West: Kansas City Chiefs 10.6 vs Denver Broncos 10.1 wins (gap 0.5)
• AFC East: Buffalo Bills 11.2 vs New England Patriots 10.7 wins (gap 0.5)