Premier League Weekend Preview: Model Predictions (Aug 21–24, 2026)

The weekend slate

10 Premier League fixtures run from Friday to Monday (Aug 21–24, 2026). Here is the full model pass: win probabilities, expected goals and recent form for every game. By our numbers the tightest game of the round is Arsenal FC vs Coventry City FC. All season-long numbers for the league live on our Premier League hub.

Fixture-by-fixture model read

Arsenal FC vs Coventry City FC — Fri, Aug 21, 21:00

Our model prices Arsenal FC at 77%, the draw at 17% and Coventry City FC at 6%. The model's expected total is ~2.9 goals, leaning Under 3 (~57%). Form (last 5, most recent first): Arsenal FC D-W-W-W-W, Coventry City FC W-W-W-W-W.

Hull City AFC vs Manchester United FC — Sat, Aug 22, 13:30

Form (last 5, most recent first): Hull City AFC W-W-D-W-L, Manchester United FC W-W-D-W-W.

Everton FC vs Crystal Palace FC — Sat, Aug 22, 16:00

Form (last 5, most recent first): Everton FC L-L-D-D-L, Crystal Palace FC L-D-L-D-L.

Nottingham Forest FC vs Leeds United FC — Sat, Aug 22, 16:00

Form (last 5, most recent first): Nottingham Forest FC D-L-D-W-W, Leeds United FC L-W-D-W-D.

Ipswich Town FC vs Sunderland AFC — Sat, Aug 22, 16:00

Form (last 5, most recent first): Ipswich Town FC W-D-D-W-D, Sunderland AFC W-W-D-D-L.

Brentford FC vs Tottenham Hotspur FC — Sat, Aug 22, 18:30

Form (last 5, most recent first): Brentford FC D-D-L-W-L, Tottenham Hotspur FC W-L-D-W-W.

Brighton & Hove Albion FC vs Aston Villa FC — Sun, Aug 23, 15:00

Form (last 5, most recent first): Brighton & Hove Albion FC L-L-W-L-D, Aston Villa FC W-W-D-L-L.

Manchester City FC vs AFC Bournemouth — Sun, Aug 23, 15:00

Form (last 5, most recent first): Manchester City FC L-D-W-W-D, AFC Bournemouth D-D-W-W-D.

Newcastle United FC vs Liverpool FC — Sun, Aug 23, 17:30

Form (last 5, most recent first): Newcastle United FC L-W-D-W-L, Liverpool FC D-L-D-L-W.

Fulham FC vs Chelsea FC — Mon, Aug 24, 21:00

Form (last 5, most recent first): Fulham FC W-D-L-L-W, Chelsea FC L-W-D-L-L.

An honest caveat

A model probability is not a promise: across a single weekend even a well-calibrated model will "lose" several games — that is variance, not a defect. Our edge lives in the precision of the numbers versus the market, not in guessing winners. Every value bet the model flags runs openly into our track record — winners and losers alike. The actual picks stay members-only until they settle.