Premier League Weekend Preview: Model Predictions (Sep 18–21, 2026)

The weekend slate

10 Premier League fixtures run from Friday to Monday (Sep 18–21, 2026). Here is the full model pass: win probabilities, expected goals and recent form for every game. By our numbers the tightest game of the round is Brentford FC vs Chelsea FC. All season-long numbers for the league live on our Premier League hub.

Fixture-by-fixture model read

Brentford FC vs Chelsea FC — Fri, Sep 18, 21:00

Our model prices Brentford FC at 22%, the draw at 52% and Chelsea FC at 26%. The model's expected total is ~2.8 goals, leaning Under 3.25 (~51%). Form (last 5, most recent first): Brentford FC D-D-D-W-D, Chelsea FC D-L-W-W-L.

Tottenham Hotspur FC vs Aston Villa FC — Sat, Sep 19, 13:30

Form (last 5, most recent first): Tottenham Hotspur FC D-D-L-L-W, Aston Villa FC L-W-D-L-L.

Newcastle United FC vs Hull City AFC — Sat, Sep 19, 16:00

Form (last 5, most recent first): Newcastle United FC L-D-W-D-L, Hull City AFC D-D-W-W-W.

Brighton & Hove Albion FC vs Arsenal FC — Sat, Sep 19, 16:00

Form (last 5, most recent first): Brighton & Hove Albion FC W-D-L-W-L, Arsenal FC W-W-W-W-W.

Everton FC vs Ipswich Town FC — Sat, Sep 19, 16:00

Form (last 5, most recent first): Everton FC D-D-D-W-L, Ipswich Town FC W-L-L-W-W.

Nottingham Forest FC vs Coventry City FC — Sat, Sep 19, 18:30

Form (last 5, most recent first): Nottingham Forest FC W-D-D-L-D, Coventry City FC L-L-L-L-W.

AFC Bournemouth vs Liverpool FC — Sun, Sep 20, 15:00

Form (last 5, most recent first): AFC Bournemouth D-D-D-L-D, Liverpool FC D-W-W-D-D.

Leeds United FC vs Crystal Palace FC — Sun, Sep 20, 15:00

Form (last 5, most recent first): Leeds United FC W-D-D-W-L, Crystal Palace FC L-W-L-L-L.

Manchester City FC vs Sunderland AFC — Sun, Sep 20, 15:00

Form (last 5, most recent first): Manchester City FC W-W-W-W-W, Sunderland AFC L-D-W-L-W.

Fulham FC vs Manchester United FC — Sun, Sep 20, 17:30

Form (last 5, most recent first): Fulham FC D-L-L-L-W, Manchester United FC L-W-D-W-L.

An honest caveat

A model probability is not a promise: across a single weekend even a well-calibrated model will "lose" several games — that is variance, not a defect. Our edge lives in the precision of the numbers versus the market, not in guessing winners. Every value bet the model flags runs openly into our track record — winners and losers alike. The actual picks stay members-only until they settle.