Premier League Weekend Recap: Results & Model Review (Aug 28–31, 2026)

The results

Here is how the Premier League weekend (Aug 28–31, 2026) played out — every result set against the model's pre-match lean. Bottom line: the model's 1X2 lean called 3 of 9 results. All season-long numbers for the league: Premier League hub.

• Crystal Palace FC 1–4 Manchester City FC — model lean: Manchester City FC (90%) ✅
• Liverpool FC 2–2 Nottingham Forest FC — model lean: Liverpool FC (58%) ❌
• Coventry City FC 0–1 Hull City AFC — model lean: Hull City AFC (65%) ✅
• AFC Bournemouth 1–1 Everton FC — model lean: Everton FC (92%) ❌
• Tottenham Hotspur FC 0–2 Newcastle United FC — model lean: the draw (60%) ❌
• Chelsea FC 4–3 Brighton & Hove Albion FC — model lean: the draw (50%) ❌
• Sunderland AFC 1–0 Fulham FC — model lean: the draw (88%) ❌
• Leeds United FC 1–1 Brentford FC — model lean: the draw (54%) ✅
• Manchester United FC 5–2 Ipswich Town FC — model lean: Ipswich Town FC (55%) ❌

Settled value bets

These bets are settled, which is why we can show them — winners and losers alike. Pending picks stay members-only.

• Liverpool FC vs Nottingham Forest FC — Liverpool FC -1.00: ❌ Lost (-1.21u, CLV +1.6pp)
• Tottenham Hotspur FC vs Newcastle United FC — Under3.0: ✅ Won (+0.89u, CLV +0.0pp)
• Sunderland AFC vs Fulham FC — Fulham FC +0: ❌ Lost (-0.76u, CLV +7.3pp)
• Leeds United FC vs Brentford FC — Brentford FC +0: ➖ Void (+0.00u, CLV +0.5pp)
• Manchester United FC vs Ipswich Town FC — Under3.0: ❌ Lost (-0.81u, CLV +0.0pp)

An honest read

One weekend is a tiny sample: 9 games tell you almost nothing about model quality — calibration across hundreds of matches does. That is why we grade ourselves on the open, running track record, not on a single round.