Premier League Weekend Recap: Results & Model Review (Sep 4–7, 2026)

The results

Here is how the Premier League weekend (Sep 4–7, 2026) played out — every result set against the model's pre-match lean. Bottom line: the model's 1X2 lean called 5 of 10 results. All season-long numbers for the league: Premier League hub.

• Ipswich Town FC 0–2 Liverpool FC — model lean: Liverpool FC (48%) ✅
• Newcastle United FC 2–2 AFC Bournemouth — model lean: Newcastle United FC (78%) ❌
• Manchester City FC 1–0 Coventry City FC — model lean: Manchester City FC (91%) ✅
• Brentford FC 1–1 Sunderland AFC — model lean: Brentford FC (65%) ❌
• Brighton & Hove Albion FC 1–1 Leeds United FC — model lean: the draw (59%) ✅
• Nottingham Forest FC 0–0 Tottenham Hotspur FC — model lean: the draw (71%) ✅
• Fulham FC 2–3 Crystal Palace FC — model lean: the draw (63%) ❌
• Hull City AFC 0–0 Aston Villa FC — model lean: Hull City AFC (75%) ❌
• Everton FC 2–2 Manchester United FC — model lean: Everton FC (51%) ❌
• Arsenal FC 2–1 Chelsea FC — model lean: Arsenal FC (54%) ✅

Settled value bets

These bets are settled, which is why we can show them — winners and losers alike. Pending picks stay members-only.

• Ipswich Town FC vs Liverpool FC — Under3.0: ✅ Won (+2.47u, CLV +14.7pp)
• Manchester City FC vs Coventry City FC — Manchester City FC to win: ✅ Won (+0.79u, CLV -3.3pp)
• Brentford FC vs Sunderland AFC — Brentford FC to win: ❌ Lost (-3.14u, CLV -0.6pp)
• Everton FC vs Manchester United FC — Under2.5: ❌ Lost (-2.36u, CLV +17.7pp)
• Arsenal FC vs Chelsea FC — Under2.5: ❌ Lost (-1.18u, CLV +8.3pp)

An honest read

One weekend is a tiny sample: 10 games tell you almost nothing about model quality — calibration across hundreds of matches does. That is why we grade ourselves on the open, running track record, not on a single round.