Premier League Weekend Recap: Results & Model Review (Oct 9–12, 2026)

The results

Here is how the Premier League weekend (Oct 9–12, 2026) played out — every result set against the model's pre-match lean. Bottom line: the model's 1X2 lean called 5 of 9 results. All season-long numbers for the league: Premier League hub.

• Arsenal FC 2–1 Leeds United FC — model lean: Arsenal FC (64%) ✅
• Sunderland AFC 0–2 Brighton & Hove Albion FC — model lean: Brighton & Hove Albion FC (57%) ✅
• Chelsea FC 5–1 AFC Bournemouth — model lean: the draw (53%) ❌
• Ipswich Town FC 2–1 Fulham FC — model lean: the draw (48%) ❌
• Aston Villa FC 2–2 Brentford FC — model lean: Brentford FC (58%) ❌
• Manchester United FC 1–1 Tottenham Hotspur FC — model lean: the draw (44%) ✅
• Crystal Palace FC 3–1 Nottingham Forest FC — model lean: the draw (77%) ❌
• Hull City AFC 2–2 Everton FC — model lean: the draw (61%) ✅
• Liverpool FC 0–3 Manchester City FC — model lean: Manchester City FC (59%) ✅

Settled value bets

These bets are settled, which is why we can show them — winners and losers alike. Pending picks stay members-only.

• Arsenal FC vs Leeds United FC — Arsenal FC +0: ✅ Won (+0.68u, CLV -0.0pp)
• Manchester United FC vs Tottenham Hotspur FC — Manchester United FC +0: ➖ Void (+0.00u, CLV +1.5pp)
• Crystal Palace FC vs Nottingham Forest FC — Nottingham Forest FC +0: ❌ Lost (-2.18u, CLV +10.4pp)

An honest read

One weekend is a tiny sample: 9 games tell you almost nothing about model quality — calibration across hundreds of matches does. That is why we grade ourselves on the open, running track record, not on a single round.