Primeira Liga Weekend Recap: Results & Model Review (Sep 4–7, 2026)

The results

Here is how the Primeira Liga weekend (Sep 4–7, 2026) played out — every result set against the model's pre-match lean. Bottom line: the model's 1X2 lean called 4 of 8 results. All season-long numbers for the league: Primeira Liga hub.

• FC Porto 2–1 Moreirense FC — model lean: FC Porto (83%) ✅
• CF Estrela da Amadora 2–2 FC Famalicão — model lean: CF Estrela da Amadora (47%) ❌
• FC Alverca 1–2 Sporting Clube de Braga — model lean: Sporting Clube de Braga (56%) ✅
• CS Marítimo 0–3 Sport Lisboa e Benfica — model lean: the draw (59%) ❌
• Sporting Clube de Portugal 2–0 CD Nacional — model lean: Sporting Clube de Portugal (63%) ✅
• CD Santa Clara 4–0 Rio Ave FC — model lean: CD Santa Clara (51%) ✅
• Vitória SC 0–0 Casa Pia AC — model lean: Vitória SC (47%) ❌
• Gil Vicente FC 0–1 Académico de Viseu FC — model lean: Gil Vicente FC (76%) ❌

Settled value bets

These bets are settled, which is why we can show them — winners and losers alike. Pending picks stay members-only.

• FC Porto vs Moreirense FC — Moreirense FC +2.00: ✅ Won (+2.10u, CLV +6.9pp)
• Vitória SC vs Casa Pia AC — Vitória SC +0: ➖ Void (+0.00u, CLV +4.2pp)
• Gil Vicente FC vs Académico de Viseu FC — Over2.5: ❌ Lost (-2.73u, CLV +20.7pp)

An honest read

One weekend is a tiny sample: 8 games tell you almost nothing about model quality — calibration across hundreds of matches does. That is why we grade ourselves on the open, running track record, not on a single round.