Primeira Liga Weekend Recap: Results & Model Review (Oct 9–12, 2026)

The results

Here is how the Primeira Liga weekend (Oct 9–12, 2026) played out — every result set against the model's pre-match lean. Bottom line: the model's 1X2 lean called 4 of 8 results. All season-long numbers for the league: Primeira Liga hub.

• Moreirense FC 0–1 Gil Vicente FC — model lean: the draw (68%) ❌
• Sporting Clube de Braga 1–3 Sporting Clube de Portugal — model lean: the draw (47%) ❌
• CS Marítimo 1–2 FC Porto — model lean: FC Porto (81%) ✅
• Casa Pia AC 0–1 CD Santa Clara — model lean: CD Santa Clara (66%) ✅
• Académico de Viseu FC 2–1 GD Estoril Praia — model lean: Académico de Viseu FC (75%) ✅
• Rio Ave FC 3–2 CD Nacional — model lean: the draw (72%) ❌
• Sport Lisboa e Benfica 2–0 Vitória SC — model lean: Sport Lisboa e Benfica (76%) ✅
• FC Arouca 1–0 CF Estrela da Amadora — model lean: the draw (59%) ❌

Settled value bets

These bets are settled, which is why we can show them — winners and losers alike. Pending picks stay members-only.

• CS Marítimo vs FC Porto — FC Porto +0: ✅ Won (+0.75u, CLV +2.7pp)
• Sport Lisboa e Benfica vs Vitória SC — Sport Lisboa e Benfica +0: ✅ Won (+0.67u, CLV +2.5pp)
• FC Arouca vs CF Estrela da Amadora — CF Estrela da Amadora +0: ❌ Lost (-1.25u, CLV +8.5pp)

An honest read

One weekend is a tiny sample: 8 games tell you almost nothing about model quality — calibration across hundreds of matches does. That is why we grade ourselves on the open, running track record, not on a single round.