Serie A Weekend Preview: Model Predictions (Sep 18–21, 2026)

The weekend slate

10 Serie A fixtures run from Friday to Monday (Sep 18–21, 2026). Here is the full model pass: win probabilities, expected goals and recent form for every game. By our numbers the tightest game of the round is AC Monza vs US Sassuolo Calcio. All season-long numbers for the league live on our Serie A hub.

Fixture-by-fixture model read

AC Monza vs US Sassuolo Calcio — Fri, Sep 18, 20:45

Our model prices AC Monza at 8%, the draw at 19% and US Sassuolo Calcio at 73%. The model's expected total is ~3.0 goals, leaning Over 2.75 (~51%). Form (last 5, most recent first): AC Monza L-D-L-L, US Sassuolo Calcio W-D-W-L-L.

Bologna FC 1909 vs Torino FC — Sat, Sep 19, 15:00

Form (last 5, most recent first): Bologna FC 1909 L-D-L-L-D, Torino FC L-W-L-L-D.

Udinese Calcio vs Cagliari Calcio — Sat, Sep 19, 15:00

Form (last 5, most recent first): Udinese Calcio L-L-W-D-L, Cagliari Calcio W-W-L-W-W.

AS Roma vs FC Internazionale Milano — Sat, Sep 19, 18:00

Form (last 5, most recent first): AS Roma W-D-W-W-W, FC Internazionale Milano W-L-W-W-W.

Venezia FC vs SS Lazio — Sat, Sep 19, 20:45

Form (last 5, most recent first): Venezia FC L-L-L-L, SS Lazio D-W-W-W-W.

ACF Fiorentina vs SSC Napoli — Sun, Sep 20, 12:30

Form (last 5, most recent first): ACF Fiorentina W-L-L-L-D, SSC Napoli W-L-L-L-W.

Frosinone Calcio vs Como 1907 — Sun, Sep 20, 15:00

Form (last 5, most recent first): Frosinone Calcio D-W-W-L, Como 1907 W-W-W-W-D.

Parma Calcio 1913 vs Genoa CFC — Sun, Sep 20, 15:00

Form (last 5, most recent first): Parma Calcio 1913 L-D-L-L-W, Genoa CFC D-L-L-L-L.

Juventus FC vs Atalanta BC — Sun, Sep 20, 18:00

Form (last 5, most recent first): Juventus FC L-D-W-W-D, Atalanta BC L-L-W-W-D.

AC Milan vs US Lecce — Sun, Sep 20, 20:45

Form (last 5, most recent first): AC Milan D-D-W-W-L, US Lecce W-L-L-W-W.

An honest caveat

A model probability is not a promise: across a single weekend even a well-calibrated model will "lose" several games — that is variance, not a defect. Our edge lives in the precision of the numbers versus the market, not in guessing winners. Every value bet the model flags runs openly into our track record — winners and losers alike. The actual picks stay members-only until they settle.