Serie A Weekend Recap: Results & Model Review (Sep 4–7, 2026)

The results

Here is how the Serie A weekend (Sep 4–7, 2026) played out — every result set against the model's pre-match lean. Bottom line: the model's 1X2 lean called 5 of 8 results. All season-long numbers for the league: Serie A hub.

• Genoa CFC 1–4 Como 1907 — model lean: the draw (47%) ❌
• ACF Fiorentina 1–2 Torino FC — model lean: the draw (62%) ❌
• FC Internazionale Milano 3–2 SSC Napoli — model lean: FC Internazionale Milano (67%) ✅
• AS Roma 2–1 Atalanta BC — model lean: AS Roma (48%) ✅
• Parma Calcio 1913 1–1 AC Monza — model lean: the draw (57%) ✅
• Frosinone Calcio 3–2 Venezia FC — model lean: Frosinone Calcio (63%) ✅
• Bologna FC 1909 2–2 US Sassuolo Calcio — model lean: US Sassuolo Calcio (77%) ❌
• Juventus FC 1–1 AC Milan — model lean: the draw (44%) ✅

Settled value bets

These bets are settled, which is why we can show them — winners and losers alike. Pending picks stay members-only.

• FC Internazionale Milano vs SSC Napoli — FC Internazionale Milano -0.75: ½ won (+0.75u, CLV +2.2pp)
• AS Roma vs Atalanta BC — Under2.5: ❌ Lost (-1.28u, CLV +10.4pp)
• Frosinone Calcio vs Venezia FC — Under2.5: ❌ Lost (-2.34u, CLV +16.1pp)

An honest read

One weekend is a tiny sample: 8 games tell you almost nothing about model quality — calibration across hundreds of matches does. That is why we grade ourselves on the open, running track record, not on a single round.