Serie A Weekend Recap: Results & Model Review (Oct 9–12, 2026)

The results

Here is how the Serie A weekend (Oct 9–12, 2026) played out — every result set against the model's pre-match lean. Bottom line: the model's 1X2 lean called 5 of 8 results. All season-long numbers for the league: Serie A hub.

• Genoa CFC 2–1 ACF Fiorentina — model lean: the draw (52%) ❌
• FC Internazionale Milano 3–0 Parma Calcio 1913 — model lean: FC Internazionale Milano (73%) ✅
• SSC Napoli 3–0 Frosinone Calcio — model lean: the draw (53%) ❌
• Como 1907 0–0 AS Roma — model lean: the draw (50%) ✅
• US Lecce 1–2 Bologna FC 1909 — model lean: the draw (72%) ❌
• SS Lazio 3–1 AC Monza — model lean: SS Lazio (67%) ✅
• US Sassuolo Calcio 1–1 AC Milan — model lean: the draw (48%) ✅
• Cagliari Calcio 1–1 Juventus FC — model lean: the draw (46%) ✅

Settled value bets

These bets are settled, which is why we can show them — winners and losers alike. Pending picks stay members-only.

• Genoa CFC vs ACF Fiorentina — ACF Fiorentina +0: ❌ Lost (-1.79u, CLV +8.0pp)

An honest read

One weekend is a tiny sample: 8 games tell you almost nothing about model quality — calibration across hundreds of matches does. That is why we grade ourselves on the open, running track record, not on a single round.