UFC: Deniz Ilbay vs Hugo Vach Preview — Full Card Model Reads & Power Ratings

UFC: Deniz Ilbay vs Hugo Vach headlines a card with 5 fights our model has generated pre-fight reads for on September 25, 2026. Below: model win probabilities, method reads and power-rating context for every fight on the main card.

Main event

Deniz Ilbay meets Hugo Vach in a fight scheduled for 3 rounds. Our model gives Deniz Ilbay a 50% chance to win. Method: 34% KO/TKO, 20% submission, 45% decision — a 46% chance this fight goes the distance.

Card breakdown

• Deniz Ilbay vs Hugo Vach: model favours Deniz Ilbay at 50% (Elo 1500 vs 1500) Method: 34% KO/TKO, 20% submission, 45% decision — a 46% chance this fight goes the distance.
• David Kozma vs Christian Eckerlin: model favours David Kozma at 50% (Elo 1500 vs 1500) Method: 34% KO/TKO, 20% submission, 45% decision — a 46% chance this fight goes the distance.
• Christian Jungwirth vs Max Holloway: model favours Max Holloway at 83% (Elo 1500 vs 1688) Method: 51% KO/TKO, 8% submission, 41% decision — a 44% chance this fight goes the distance.
• Marc Diakiese vs Fedor Duric: model favours Marc Diakiese at 51% (Elo 1509 vs 1500) Method: 28% KO/TKO, 18% submission, 54% decision — a 55% chance this fight goes the distance.
• Roman Paulus vs Raul Lemberanskij: model favours Roman Paulus at 50% (Elo 1500 vs 1500) Method: 34% KO/TKO, 20% submission, 45% decision — a 46% chance this fight goes the distance.