UFC: Mateusz Pawlik vs Madars Fleminas Preview — Full Card Model Reads & Power Ratings

UFC: Mateusz Pawlik vs Madars Fleminas headlines a card with 5 fights our model has generated pre-fight reads for on October 21, 2026. Below: model win probabilities, method reads and power-rating context for every fight on the main card.

Main event

Mateusz Pawlik meets Madars Fleminas in a fight scheduled for 3 rounds. Our model gives Mateusz Pawlik a 50% chance to win. Method: 34% KO/TKO, 20% submission, 45% decision — a 46% chance this fight goes the distance.

Card breakdown

• Mateusz Pawlik vs Madars Fleminas: model favours Mateusz Pawlik at 50% (Elo 1500 vs 1500) Method: 34% KO/TKO, 20% submission, 45% decision — a 46% chance this fight goes the distance.
• Marcin Held vs Valeriu Mircea: model favours Valeriu Mircea at 57% (Elo 1476 vs 1500) Method: 31% KO/TKO, 24% submission, 46% decision — a 45% chance this fight goes the distance.
• Steven Krt vs Oskar Szczepaniak: model favours Steven Krt at 50% (Elo 1500 vs 1500) Method: 34% KO/TKO, 20% submission, 45% decision — a 46% chance this fight goes the distance.
• Sasha Moisa vs Wojciech Kawa: model favours Sasha Moisa at 50% (Elo 1500 vs 1500) Method: 34% KO/TKO, 20% submission, 45% decision — a 46% chance this fight goes the distance.
• Igor Michaliszyn vs Tomasz Romanowski: model favours Igor Michaliszyn at 50% (Elo 1500 vs 1500) Method: 34% KO/TKO, 20% submission, 45% decision — a 46% chance this fight goes the distance.