Value Bet Results — 2026-08-29: 13-11, -95.6 units

The results

Here's how our value bets from 2026-08-29 settled — honestly, wins and losses. The bottom line: 13-11 across 24 bets, -95.6 units, average CLV +0.5pp.

Football

• Derby County FC vs Swansea City AFC — Over2.25: ✅ Won (+1.95u, CLV +0.0pp)
• Middlesbrough FC vs West Bromwich Albion FC — Under2.75: ❌ Lost (-1.54u, CLV +0.0pp)
• Wolverhampton Wanderers FC vs Stoke City FC — Wolverhampton Wanderers FC to win: ✅ Won (+1.07u, CLV -3.7pp)
• Liverpool FC vs Nottingham Forest FC — Liverpool FC -1.00: ❌ Lost (-1.21u, CLV +1.6pp)
• SG Sonnenhof Großaspach vs FC Ingolstadt 04 — Under2.75: ✅ Won (+0.64u, CLV -6.9pp)
• 1. FC Köln vs TSG Hoffenheim — Under3.0: ❌ Lost (-0.68u, CLV +2.5pp)
• RB Leipzig vs Borussia Mönchengladbach — RB Leipzig +0: ✅ Won (+0.77u, CLV +1.6pp)
• Watford FC vs West Ham United FC — Over3.0: ❌ Lost (-0.87u, CLV +1.0pp)
• Blackburn Rovers FC vs Queens Park Rangers FC — Under2.5: ❌ Lost (-0.63u, CLV -3.7pp)
• Southampton FC vs Millwall FC — Under2.75: ❌ Lost (-0.92u, CLV -3.4pp)
• Norwich City FC vs Burnley FC — Under2.75: ❌ Lost (-0.86u, CLV -5.5pp)
• FC Alverca vs CD Santa Clara — Over2.25: ❌ Lost (-0.30u, CLV +0.0pp)
• SBV Excelsior vs Sparta Rotterdam — SBV Excelsior +0: ✅ Won (+1.31u, CLV -4.4pp)
• Tottenham Hotspur FC vs Newcastle United FC — Under3.0: ✅ Won (+0.89u, CLV +0.0pp)
• Borussia Dortmund vs Hamburger SV — Over3.0: ❌ Lost (-1.21u, CLV +0.0pp)
• Académico de Viseu FC vs FC Porto — FC Porto +0: ✅ Won (+0.35u, CLV +2.4pp)
• 1. FC Nürnberg vs DSC Arminia Bielefeld — 1. FC Nürnberg -0.25: ✅ Won (+0.81u, CLV +0.0pp)
• FC Lorient vs ES Troyes AC — Over2.25: ✅ Won (+0.64u, CLV +0.0pp)
• AJ Auxerre vs Angers SCO — Angers SCO +0.50: ✅ Won (+0.64u, CLV +0.0pp)
• AJ Auxerre vs Angers SCO — Under2.5: ❌ Lost (-0.95u, CLV +0.5pp)
• Juventus FC vs Parma Calcio 1913 — Juventus FC +0: ✅ Won (+0.24u, CLV +2.5pp)
• Sevilla FC vs Club Atlético de Madrid — Over2.5: ✅ Won (+1.96u, CLV +9.1pp)

8

• TCU vs North Carolina — North Carolina: ❌ Lost (-100.00u, CLV +6.1pp)

9

• Cameron Nelson vs Ding Meng — Cameron Nelson: ✅ Won (+2.34u, CLV +2.7pp)

What it means

A single night is noise — the metric that matters is closing line value across hundreds of bets. Beat the sharpest books' closing line consistently and profit follows over time, regardless of any one bet's result. The full, continuously-updated record is in the open on our track record.