Value Bet Results — 2026-09-01: 5-7, +1.9 units

The results

Here's how our value bets from 2026-09-01 settled — honestly, wins and losses. The bottom line: 5-7 across 14 bets, +1.9 units, average CLV +4.3pp.

Football

• Swansea City AFC vs Watford FC — Watford FC +0: ❌ Lost (-0.59u, CLV +4.1pp)
• Stoke City FC vs Norwich City FC — Norwich City FC to win: ❌ Lost (-1.19u, CLV +9.4pp)
• Birmingham City FC vs Southampton FC — Southampton FC +0: ➖ Void (+0.00u, CLV +15.6pp)

Tennis

• Gabriela Andrea Knutson vs Eva Lys — Gabriela Andrea Knutson: ❌ Lost (-0.37u, CLV +5.2pp)
• Filip Misolic vs Francisco Cerundolo — Under 29.5: ➖ Void (+0.00u, CLV +5.7pp)
• Camilo Ugo Carabelli vs Jan Lennard Struff — Camilo Ugo Carabelli: ❌ Lost (-1.39u, CLV -2.2pp)

Baseball

• Tampa Bay Rays vs New York Mets — New York Mets: ❌ Lost (-1.18u, CLV -1.4pp)
• Pittsburgh Pirates vs San Francisco Giants — San Francisco Giants: ❌ Lost (-0.86u, CLV +5.6pp)
• Washington Nationals vs Atlanta Braves — Under 9.5: ❌ Lost (-1.57u, CLV +3.0pp)
• Minnesota Twins vs Detroit Tigers — Detroit Tigers: ✅ Won (+1.95u, CLV +2.6pp)
• Kansas City Royals vs Miami Marlins — Under 9.5: ✅ Won (+2.39u, CLV +2.5pp)
• Chicago Cubs vs Milwaukee Brewers — Milwaukee Brewers: ✅ Won (+1.56u, CLV +2.4pp)
• Chicago Cubs vs Milwaukee Brewers — Over 10.5: ✅ Won (+1.40u, CLV +2.0pp)
• Texas Rangers vs Athletics — Over 7.5: ✅ Won (+1.76u, CLV +3.6pp)

What it means

A single night is noise — the metric that matters is closing line value across hundreds of bets. Beat the sharpest books' closing line consistently and profit follows over time, regardless of any one bet's result. The full, continuously-updated record is in the open on our track record.