Value Bet Results — 2026-09-18: 5-6, -0.9 units

The results

Here's how our value bets from 2026-09-18 settled — honestly, wins and losses. The bottom line: 5-6 across 11 bets, -0.9 units, average CLV +5.0pp.

Football

• VfL Wolfsburg vs SV Darmstadt 98 — VfL Wolfsburg +0: ✅ Won (+0.66u, CLV +3.1pp)
• FC Bayern München vs 1. FC Union Berlin — Under4.5: ❌ Lost (-1.73u, CLV +15.0pp)
• FC Bayern München vs 1. FC Union Berlin — 1. FC Union Berlin +3.00: ❌ Lost (-1.11u, CLV +2.5pp)
• Brentford FC vs Chelsea FC — Chelsea FC +0: ❌ Lost (-1.56u, CLV +2.6pp)
• Bristol City FC vs Watford FC — Watford FC +0.75: ½ lost (-0.64u, CLV +0.0pp)

Baseball

• Cleveland Guardians vs Athletics — Athletics: ✅ Won (+0.69u, CLV +6.9pp)
• Chicago White Sox vs Detroit Tigers — Detroit Tigers: ✅ Won (+1.45u, CLV +1.4pp)
• Texas Rangers vs Toronto Blue Jays — Toronto Blue Jays: ✅ Won (+2.08u, CLV +4.1pp)
• Houston Astros vs Atlanta Braves — Atlanta Braves: ❌ Lost (-1.23u, CLV +2.4pp)
• St. Louis Cardinals vs Washington Nationals — Washington Nationals: ✅ Won (+1.77u, CLV +6.2pp)
• Los Angeles Angels vs Minnesota Twins — Minnesota Twins: ❌ Lost (-1.23u, CLV +8.6pp)

What it means

A single night is noise — the metric that matters is closing line value across hundreds of bets. Beat the sharpest books' closing line consistently and profit follows over time, regardless of any one bet's result. The full, continuously-updated record is in the open on our track record.