Value Bet Results — 2026-09-27: 11-12, -0.0 units

The results

Here's how our value bets from 2026-09-27 settled — honestly, wins and losses. The bottom line: 11-12 across 23 bets, -0.0 units, average CLV -0.5pp.

Baseball

• Philadelphia Phillies vs Tampa Bay Rays — Under 7.0: ❌ Lost (-2.23u, CLV +6.9pp)
• Washington Nationals vs New York Mets — Under 8.0: ❌ Lost (-1.63u, CLV -1.5pp)
• Washington Nationals vs New York Mets — New York Mets: ✅ Won (+5.64u, CLV -14.5pp)
• Philadelphia Phillies vs Tampa Bay Rays — Tampa Bay Rays: ❌ Lost (-1.58u, CLV -21.5pp)
• Milwaukee Brewers vs St. Louis Cardinals — St. Louis Cardinals: ❌ Lost (-1.17u, CLV +10.3pp)
• Seattle Mariners vs Los Angeles Angels — Under 6.5: ❌ Lost (-2.73u, CLV +0.0pp)
• Chicago White Sox vs Colorado Rockies — Over 8.5: ❌ Lost (-1.40u, CLV +4.7pp)

7

• Indianapolis Colts vs Houston Texans — Indianapolis Colts +2.0: ✅ Won (+0.70u)
• Indianapolis Colts vs Houston Texans — Indianapolis Colts +1.5: ✅ Won (+1.33u)
• Jacksonville Jaguars vs New England Patriots — New England Patriots +2.5: ❌ Lost (-1.46u)
• Washington Commanders vs Seattle Seahawks — Over 40.5: ✅ Won (+3.71u, CLV -2.0pp)
• New York Giants vs Tennessee Titans — Over 38.5: ❌ Lost (-3.45u, CLV +0.0pp)
• New York Giants vs Tennessee Titans — Tennessee Titans +2.5: ❌ Lost (-1.88u)
• Pittsburgh Steelers vs Cincinnati Bengals — Over 43.0: ✅ Won (+3.10u, CLV +0.0pp)
• Cleveland Browns vs Carolina Panthers — Cleveland Browns +2.5: ✅ Won (+1.01u)
• Cleveland Browns vs Carolina Panthers — Cleveland Browns +1.5: ✅ Won (+1.56u)
• Detroit Lions vs New York Jets — Over 48.5: ✅ Won (+3.68u, CLV +4.3pp)
• Indianapolis Colts vs Houston Texans — Over 42.5: ❌ Lost (-2.48u, CLV +0.5pp)
• Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Minnesota Vikings — Over 43.0: ❌ Lost (-3.66u, CLV +3.0pp)
• San Francisco 49ers vs Arizona Cardinals — Over 48.5: ✅ Won (+2.79u, CLV +3.7pp)
• San Francisco 49ers vs Arizona Cardinals — Arizona Cardinals +7.5: ✅ Won (+1.91u)
• New Orleans Saints vs Las Vegas Raiders — Las Vegas Raiders +3.5: ✅ Won (+1.60u)
• Dallas Cowboys vs Baltimore Ravens — Under 53.0: ❌ Lost (-3.38u, CLV +0.0pp)

What it means

A single night is noise — the metric that matters is closing line value across hundreds of bets. Beat the sharpest books' closing line consistently and profit follows over time, regardless of any one bet's result. The full, continuously-updated record is in the open on our track record.