Value Bet Results — 2026-10-10: 10-13, -8.0 units

The results

Here's how our value bets from 2026-10-10 settled — honestly, wins and losses. The bottom line: 10-13 across 28 bets, -8.0 units, average CLV +5.7pp.

Football

• West Bromwich Albion FC vs Birmingham City FC — the draw: ❌ Lost (-0.62u, CLV +5.9pp)
• Arsenal FC vs Leeds United FC — Arsenal FC +0: ✅ Won (+0.68u, CLV -0.0pp)
• Würzburger Kickers vs Hansa Rostock — Hansa Rostock +0: ✅ Won (+2.81u, CLV +8.6pp)
• Genoa CFC vs ACF Fiorentina — ACF Fiorentina +0: ❌ Lost (-1.79u, CLV +8.0pp)
• 1. FSV Mainz 05 vs Bayer 04 Leverkusen — 1. FSV Mainz 05 to win: ❌ Lost (-0.58u, CLV -4.6pp)
• FC Augsburg vs FC Bayern München — Over4.5: ❌ Lost (-0.51u, CLV +3.7pp)
• Sheffield United FC vs Lincoln City FC — Lincoln City FC to win: ❌ Lost (-0.63u, CLV +1.2pp)
• Middlesbrough FC vs Wolverhampton Wanderers FC — Wolverhampton Wanderers FC +0: ❌ Lost (-1.18u, CLV +0.6pp)
• Bolton Wanderers FC vs Stoke City FC — Bolton Wanderers FC +0: ❌ Lost (-2.15u, CLV +12.9pp)
• MSV Duisburg vs TSG 1899 Hoffenheim II — MSV Duisburg to win: ✅ Won (+1.45u, CLV +2.9pp)
• FC Barcelona vs Getafe CF — FC Barcelona +0: ✅ Won (+0.35u, CLV +2.4pp)
• Manchester United FC vs Tottenham Hotspur FC — Manchester United FC +0: ➖ Void (+0.00u, CLV +1.5pp)
• CS Marítimo vs FC Porto — FC Porto +0: ✅ Won (+0.75u, CLV +2.7pp)
• AFC Ajax vs NEC — AFC Ajax +0: ➖ Void (+0.00u, CLV +1.9pp)

Tennis

• Mirra Andreeva vs Nikola Bartunkova — Over 21.5: ➖ Void (+0.00u, CLV +2.0pp)
• Bu Yunchaokete vs Casper Ruud — Under 22.5: ➖ Void (+0.00u, CLV +2.1pp)
• Qinwen Zheng vs Elise Mertens — Over 22.5: ❌ Lost (-1.26u, CLV -1.0pp)
• Sebastian Baez vs Valentin Vacherot — Under 21.5: ➖ Void (+0.00u, CLV +2.5pp)
• Francisco Cerundolo vs Jakub Mensik — Under 22.5: ✅ Won (+1.54u)

Hockey

• Boston Bruins vs Philadelphia Flyers — Under 5.5: ❌ Lost (-1.68u, CLV +0.0pp)
• New Jersey Devils vs Vancouver Canucks — Under 6.5: ✅ Won (+1.97u, CLV -4.7pp)
• San Jose Sharks vs Edmonton Oilers — Over 6.5: ❌ Lost (-2.94u, CLV +23.9pp)
• Colorado Avalanche vs Toronto Maple Leafs — Toronto Maple Leafs: ✅ Won (+1.48u, CLV +0.3pp)
• Pittsburgh Penguins vs Dallas Stars — Over 6.5: ❌ Lost (-2.70u, CLV +8.9pp)

8

• Massachusetts vs Miami (OH) — Miami (OH): ✅ Won (+3.77u, CLV +20.5pp)

9

• Felipe Franco vs Brendson Ribeiro — Felipe Franco: ❌ Lost (-5.00u, CLV +2.4pp)
• Francisco Prado vs Ismael Bonfim — Francisco Prado: ✅ Won (+0.72u, CLV +11.1pp)
• Allen Frye Jr. vs RJ Harris — RJ Harris: ❌ Lost (-2.53u, CLV +10.1pp)

What it means

A single night is noise — the metric that matters is closing line value across hundreds of bets. Beat the sharpest books' closing line consistently and profit follows over time, regardless of any one bet's result. The full, continuously-updated record is in the open on our track record.