World Cup 2026 Group C: Prediction & Preview
Group C is the most lopsided in the tournament — and our model does not pretend otherwise. Brazil enter with the highest Elo of any team across all eight groups at 1669, and that dominance flows straight through to the simulation outputs. Today brings the group's defining early fixtures: Brazil face Morocco while Haiti take on Scotland. See our previews for Brazil vs Morocco and Haiti vs Scotland before the day kicks off.
Group C at a glance: Brazil and then everyone else
Pre-tournament advance probabilities from our 10,000 simulations:
- Brazil — 91.1% to advance (Elo 1669, win-group% 54.2%, title% 6.2%)
- Morocco — 80.3% to advance (Elo 1604, win-group% 27.7%, title% 2.2%)
- Haiti — 50.5% to advance (Elo 1457, win-group% 9.8%, title% 0.3%)
- Scotland — 42.3% to advance (Elo 1469, win-group% 8.2%, title% 0.2%)
Brazil's 91.1% is the highest advance probability of any team in the tournament's opening four groups. The gap between first (Brazil) and second (Morocco) is 10.8 points; the gap between third (Haiti) and fourth (Scotland) is a mere 8.2. That bottom-half battle is far closer than the top.
Brazil: the group is theirs to lose
A 54.2% group-win probability and 6.2% title chance — the highest in these four groups by some distance — makes Brazil the clear headline act. Their Elo of 1669 sits well above Morocco's 1604. Vinicius Jr. and a deep, talented squad give them weapons across every phase of the pitch.
The only realistic scenario in which Brazil do not advance involves an injury crisis or a complete tactical collapse — neither is something the model can price in. At 91.1%, our simulations almost always see them through. The real question is whether they top the group and, crucially, which second-place side from Group D they might face in the Round of 16.
Morocco: the clear second — but not a certainty
Morocco's run to the 2022 World Cup semi-final announced them as a genuine force, and our model reflects that with an Elo of 1604 and an 80.3% advance probability. They are the most likely second-placed team by a substantial margin, but that 19.7% group-exit figure is worth noting — a poor result against Brazil today combined with a stumble against Haiti or Scotland is not impossible.
Achraf Hakimi and the Moroccan defensive structure are the foundation. If they keep Brazil to a tight margin today, their confidence for the remaining fixtures will be high. A measured, defensively solid performance is the template the model backs them to execute.
Haiti vs Scotland: the group's closest fight
Scotland carry a marginally higher Elo (1469 vs Haiti's 1457) yet our model gives Haiti the edge in advance probability: 50.5% vs 42.3%. That apparent contradiction resolves when you account for fixture difficulty — both face Brazil and Morocco, but the head-to-head between the two of them is likely to decide who sneaks third place and, potentially, a knockout-round berth as a best third-placed team.
Scotland's 57.7% group-exit probability makes them our most likely group-stage elimination across all four groups reviewed here. They are not without quality — Scott McTominay has matured into a genuine big-game player — but the fixture list is brutal and the Elo gap to Brazil and Morocco is steep.
One to watch: Vinicius Jr.
In a group where Brazil's advance is near-certain, the interest lies in how emphatically they progress. Vinicius Jr. at the peak of his powers, operating on the tournament's biggest stage, is the individual most likely to produce moments that shape not just Group C but Brazil's entire tournament trajectory. A flying start today against Morocco could define the tone.
Our predicted Group C finish
1st: Brazil — 91.1% advance probability says it all. 2nd: Morocco — their 2022 pedigree and 1604 Elo make them the decisive second-place pick. Haiti and Scotland will battle hard, but Scotland face an uphill task on every metric. Follow the live standings on our Group C hub, watch Brazil and Morocco's progress on the live WC 2026 model, and read the full tournament case in our tournament preview.