Data-driven writing on value betting, profitability and how the model thinks — free to read.
Iran 65% to win vs New Zealand (18%); our model projects ~2.62 expected goals (λ Iran 1.74 / NZ 0.88) with a slight Over lean on the 2.0 main line. Full breakdown — form, lineups and the honest no-bet call.
Read moreUruguay 72% favourites vs Saudi Arabia (20%); our model projects ~2.67 expected goals but a roughly even over/under split around 2.5 (~50% under). Full breakdown — form, lineups and players to watch.
Read moreBelgium 72% to win vs Egypt (13%); our model leans Over 2.5 goals (~62%) with both teams to score at 52%. Full breakdown — form, De Bruyne vs Salah, lineups and where the value is.
Read moreSpain 84% to win vs Cape Verde (7%); our model leans strongly Over 2.5 goals (~74%) with both teams to score at 55%. Full breakdown — form, lineups and players to watch.
Read moreThree of four 1X2 calls correct, the goals model excellent across the board, and our one settled value bet won. The Netherlands draw was the one miss — we own it. Here's the honest breakdown.
Read moreSweden 60% to win vs Tunisia (22%); our model leans Over 2.5 goals — though Sweden's own recent form is tight and low-scoring. Full breakdown: form, head-to-head, probable lineups and a flagged value bet.
Read moreIvory Coast 59% to win vs Ecuador (26%); model expects ~2.74 total goals but the over/under sits right on the line — a genuine coin-flip. Full form, head-to-head, probable lineups and players to watch.
Read moreNetherlands 56% to win vs Japan (26%); our model leans Over 2.5 goals and both teams to score. Full breakdown — form, head-to-head, probable lineups and players to watch.
Read moreGermany 74% to win vs Curaçao (11%); our model leans heavily Over 2.5 goals (~62%) with both teams to score at 52%. Full breakdown — form, lineups and players to watch.
Read moreTwo draws, a Scotland upset, and a contrarian Australia call. Our 1X2 model had an off matchday — but the one value bet we placed, Switzerland Under 2.75, landed. Here's the honest breakdown.
Read moreOur model leans Australia (59%) over Türkiye (25%) — a call that may surprise. Full breakdown — goals/over-under, form, head-to-head, probable lineups and players to watch.
Read moreA tight Group C opener: our model edges Haiti (50%) over Scotland (28%) and leans Under 2.5 goals. Full breakdown — form, head-to-head, probable lineups and players to watch.
Read moreBrazil 59% to win vs Morocco (22%); our model leans Over 2.5 goals and both teams to score. Full breakdown — form, head-to-head, probable lineups and players to watch.
Read moreSwitzerland 58% to win vs Qatar (30%); our model leans Over 2.5 goals and both teams to score. Full breakdown — form, head-to-head, probable lineups and players to watch.
Read moreCanada drew 1–1 with Bosnia and the USA thrashed Paraguay 4–1 on matchday 2. How our 10,000-simulation model called each match — and what four games tell us so far.
Read moreMexico beat South Africa 2–0 and South Korea edged Czech Republic 2–1 on matchday 1. Here's what our 10,000-simulation model said before kick-off — and where it was right.
Read moreEngland (90.7% advance) and Croatia (78.9%) look set to go through, but Ghana (54.3%) have the pedigree to unsettle Croatia. Our 10,000-sim model breaks it all down.
Read moreFour sides all with a live advance chance — Portugal, Colombia, Uzbekistan and DR Congo make Group K the most unpredictable group at World Cup 2026 by our model.
Read moreArgentina (92.2% advance, highest Elo in the field) are a near-certainty to top Group J. But Algeria, Austria and Jordan are locked in a genuine three-way fight for second.
Read moreFrance (90.1% advance) and Senegal (79.5%) — the two best teams drawn together. Our 10,000-simulation model breaks down the toughest group at World Cup 2026.
Read moreSpain are the strongest group favourite in the entire tournament in our 10,000-simulation model. The big surprise: Uruguay — the highest-Elo chaser — trail Cape Verde for second place.
Read moreBelgium are strong Group G favourites in our 10,000-simulation model. The real tension is a near-dead-heat between Egypt and Iran for the second knockout spot.
Read moreThe Netherlands lead Group F comfortably in our 10,000-simulation model, but the real drama is a statistical dead heat between Japan and Sweden for the second spot.
Read moreGermany dominate Group E in our 10,000-simulation model, but Ivory Coast are a genuine title dark horse and Curaçao have a real shot at the knockouts.
Read moreUSA's 4–1 demolition of Paraguay has already reshaped Group D. Our model gives Türkiye the lowest win-group% despite a strong Elo — here's why.
Read moreBrazil are the runaway favourites in Group C with a 91.1% advance probability. Morocco chase second. Haiti and Scotland fight to avoid last place — our model's full breakdown.
Read moreNo team above 28.6% to win Group B — our model flags Switzerland as the surprise disappointment despite the highest Elo. Canada, Qatar, Bosnia are all live.
Read moreOur 10,000-simulation model gives Mexico and South Africa the inside track to advance from Group A. Here's what the numbers say — and who could spring a surprise.
Read moreOur model ran 10,000 World Cup 2026 simulations. France lead at 9.5%, but the title race is the closest in years. Here's the full breakdown.
Read more