WC 2026 Group L: England Top, Croatia Hold Firm, Ghana Lurks
On paper, Group L has a clear pecking order: England out front, Croatia steady in second, Ghana competitive in third, and Panama making up the numbers. Our model broadly agrees — but Ghana's 54.3% advance rate is a quiet reminder that this group is not as settled as the headlines suggest. Croatia, for all their World Cup pedigree, will need to be at their best to see off a side that has a habit of outperforming expectations in major tournaments.
Who advances?
Our 10,000 simulations produce the following advance probabilities for Group L:
- England — 90.7% advance / 9.3% group exit / 4.7% to win the tournament
- Croatia — 78.9% advance / 21.1% group exit / 1.8% title probability
- Ghana — 54.3% advance / 45.7% group exit / 0.5% title probability
- Panama — 39.5% advance / 60.5% group exit / 0.3% title probability
England top the group in more than half our simulations — a comfortable lead. Croatia are the clear second favourites. The real story is Ghana, who cross the 50% threshold and sit only 24.6 percentage points behind Croatia on advance probability. Group L standings and live odds have the latest market pricing.
England: built to top the group
England's Elo of 1659 is comfortably the highest in Group L and their 53.7% win-group share gives them a clear edge over Croatia at 27.2%. A 4.7% title probability puts them among the leading national-team squads at this tournament, and their World Cup 2026 tournament preview profile is that of a side with the depth to go very deep in the knockout rounds.
The 9.3% group-exit rate — the same ballpark as France in Group I — reflects genuine quality without complacency. England have underdelivered at the group stage in previous tournaments, and the model builds some of that historical variance into its distributions. Croatia and Ghana are both capable of causing a bad day.
Croatia: experience over athleticism
Croatia (Elo 1597, 78.9% advance) are one of the most experienced sides at this tournament. Their World Cup record — consecutive semi-final and final appearances — speaks for itself. The model rewards tournament pedigree, and that is a large part of why Croatia sit comfortably in second despite a modest Elo advantage over Ghana.
A 21.1% group-exit rate is a real vulnerability. The most plausible path to that outcome: an upset loss to Ghana in what will likely be their most contested group fixture, followed by an inability to recover on goal difference. Croatia have been here before and survived — but Ghana's physical intensity can make life extremely uncomfortable.
One to watch: Ghana as the group's dark horse
Ghana are World Cup 2026's most credible dark horse in Group L. With an Elo of 1491 and a 54.3% advance rate, they are the team our model most expects to surprise. They historically punch above their Elo in World Cup knockout environments — their 2010 run to the quarter-final being the standout example — and their squad carries genuine pace and physical presence up front. The Ghana–Croatia fixture is the group's critical match: whoever wins almost certainly goes through; whoever loses faces real jeopardy.
Panama: limited ceiling, clear assignment
Panama (Elo 1462, 39.5% advance) are the group's underdogs. Their Elo is the lowest in Group L and their 60.5% group-exit rate makes them the most likely side to go home early. That said, 39.5% is not negligible — the model is not writing them off entirely. A win over Ghana would put them in contention, and in group-stage football, three points in the first fixture has overturned bigger deficits.
Predicted group finish
- 1st — England (Elo 1659, 53.7% win-group probability)
- 2nd — Croatia (Elo 1597, 27.2% win-group probability)
- 3rd — Ghana
- 4th — Panama
Track our live simulations at /wc2026. For the other groups: Group I, Group J, and Group K.