WC 2026 Group K: The Most Open Group in the Tournament
If you're looking for the group most likely to throw up a genuine surprise, look no further than Group K. No runaway favourite, four sides with credible advance claims, and a twist at the very top: Colombia carry the highest Elo in the group (1648) yet our model rates Portugal as the most likely side to win it. Welcome to World Cup 2026's most intriguing group.
Who advances?
Our 10,000 simulations produce the following advance probabilities for Group K:
- Portugal — 79.5% advance / 20.5% group exit / 1.7% to win the tournament
- Colombia — 68.7% advance / 31.3% group exit / 3.1% title probability
- DR Congo — 62.3% advance / 37.7% group exit / 0.8% title probability
- Uzbekistan — 58.8% advance / 41.2% group exit / 1.0% title probability
The spread between first and fourth is just 20.7 percentage points — the tightest range of any group in this tournament. All four sides have a better-than-even chance of reaching the knockout rounds if you consider the uncertainty properly. Group K standings and live odds are updated continuously.
Portugal: the model's pick despite lower Elo
Portugal's Elo of 1589 sits below Colombia's 1648, yet our model gives them a 37.4% win-group probability to Colombia's 24.8%. The divergence comes from how the model weights tournament dynamics: Portugal's recent form in knockout football, their experience in major tournaments and tactical versatility all contribute to the model rating them as slightly more likely to top the group when three tough matches are played back to back.
A 79.5% advance rate is comfortable for a group favourite — but a 20.5% group exit rate is a genuine number and reflects just how open this group is. Portugal are also featured in our World Cup 2026 tournament preview.
Colombia: the group's strongest title outsider
Colombia's 3.1% title probability is the highest in Group K — they are, in absolute terms, the most dangerous team here if they find form. Their Elo of 1648 places them among the tournament's legitimate second-tier threats, and a strong Copa América campaign in recent years shows they can compete with the best. Yet our model consistently places them second in the group, not first. The model sees Colombia as a team that may be slightly over-rated on raw Elo against Portugal's more consistent major-tournament execution.
Uzbekistan and DR Congo: the genuine wildcards
DR Congo (Elo 1514, 62.3% advance) and Uzbekistan (Elo 1557, 58.8% advance) represent two of the most underappreciated sides at this tournament. Both advance in more than half our simulations — a figure almost unthinkable for teams that many casual observers would write off before a ball is kicked.
DR Congo's African qualifying campaign demonstrated real defensive organisation. Uzbekistan's rapid improvement under their domestic coaching setup has been one of the stories of Asian football over the past four years. In a group this tight, either side beating Colombia would transform the standings entirely.
One to watch: Colombia's attacking threat
Colombia's forward line is genuinely world class at their best, capable of punishing any side that sits off them. If they arrive in form and their attack fires from the opening fixture, they have the quality to win the group ahead of Portugal. The counter-argument — that in a compressed group-phase schedule, Colombia's defensive fragility can be exploited — is exactly why the model rates them slightly behind. The Colombia–Portugal fixture is the defining match of Group K.
Who could disappoint?
Uzbekistan edge the lowest advance rate at 58.8%, but 'lowest in Group K' is a very different thing from 'likely to go home early'. The model gives them a genuine chance in every simulation. Their most likely path to elimination is a combination of a heavy defeat against Portugal and a loss to Colombia, which would leave them reliant on DR Congo results. In a group this open, the margin for error is thin for everyone.
Predicted group finish
- 1st — Portugal (Elo 1589, 37.4% win-group probability)
- 2nd — Colombia (Elo 1648, 24.8% win-group probability)
- 3rd — DR Congo
- 4th — Uzbekistan
Follow the simulations live at /wc2026. For the other groups: Group I, Group J, and Group L.