A sleeper isn't a hunch — it's a price gap. These are the players the market drafts furthest below our projection model's board (PPR): real average draft position vs. model rank, refreshed daily. And on the flip side: the reaches the market keeps overpaying for.
| Player | Pos | Team | Model rank | ADP rank | Gap | Proj pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Rodgers | QB | PIT | 74 | 217 | +143 | 260 |
| Pat Freiermuth | TE | PIT | 104 | 216 | +112 | 144 |
| T.J. Hockenson | TE | MIN | 94 | 201 | +107 | 148 |
| Tyrone Tracy Jr. | RB | NYG | 61 | 164 | +103 | 193 |
| Baker Mayfield | QB | TB | 29 | 128 | +99 | 302 |
| Dalton Schultz | TE | HOU | 98 | 189 | +91 | 147 |
| Chig Okonkwo | TE | WAS | 105 | 193 | +88 | 140 |
| Cooper Kupp | WR | SEA | 76 | 163 | +87 | 189 |
| Bryce Young | QB | CAR | 111 | 198 | +87 | 233 |
| Travis Kelce | TE | KC | 24 | 108 | +84 | 209 |
| Cam Ward | QB | TEN | 126 | 209 | +83 | 224 |
| Hunter Henry | TE | NE | 90 | 172 | +82 | 149 |
| Geno Smith | QB | NYJ | 134 | 214 | +80 | 218 |
| Bo Nix | QB | DEN | 37 | 114 | +77 | 293 |
| Alvin Kamara | RB | NO | 78 | 155 | +77 | 177 |
| Player | Pos | Team | Model rank | ADP rank | Gap | Proj pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Malik Willis | QB | MIA | 536 | 179 | -357 | 51 |
| Jaydon Blue | RB | DAL | 437 | 186 | -251 | 16 |
| Bhayshul Tuten | RB | JAX | 269 | 52 | -217 | 67 |
| Jaleel McLaughlin | RB | DEN | 284 | 99 | -185 | 58 |
| Jaylin Noel | WR | HOU | 355 | 211 | -144 | 46 |
| Matthew Golden | WR | GB | 252 | 110 | -142 | 85 |
| Braelon Allen | RB | NYJ | 314 | 173 | -141 | 48 |
| Blake Corum | RB | LA | 261 | 123 | -138 | 70 |
| Emari Demercado | RB | KC | 279 | 141 | -138 | 60 |
| Travis Hunter | WR | JAX | 332 | 194 | -138 | 54 |
Data baseline, not gospel: projections come from prior-season form, usage and opponent strength; ADP moves daily and does not know about last night's injury news. Always check reports before drafting. For entertainment / draft research — 18+.
A player whose public average draft position (ADP) is significantly later than his rank on our value-over-replacement projection board. We don't guess narratives — we measure the gap between market price and model price, exactly like our betting models do with bookmaker odds.
Public average draft position aggregated from real drafts (Fantasy Football Calculator), matched to our player projections and refreshed with the rankings — so the sleeper list updates as draft-season sentiment moves.
Avoiding a bad pick is worth as much as finding a good one. If the market consistently drafts a player 10+ picks ahead of his projected value, someone in your league will pay that premium — it doesn't have to be you.