Justin Herbert (Quarterback, LAC) enters the 2026 draft season as our model's QB7, projected for ~289 PPR points (overall rank 45). In the 2025 season they finished as the QB10 in PPR scoring. Projections come from prior-season form, usage and opponent strength — a data baseline for draft research, not a betting edge.
The market drafts Justin Herbert on average 60 spots LATER than our board (ADP rank 105 vs model rank 45) — potential draft value.
Pace assumes a full 17-game season at the player's current modelled per-game rate — it does not account for injury, role changes, suspensions or coaching decisions that can shift usage during the season. Data baseline for research, not a betting edge.
| Scoring | Proj pts | VOR | Tier | Overall | Pos rank | ADP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PPR | 289 | 43 | 3 | 45 | QB7 | 105.0 |
| Half-PPR | 289 | 43 | 3 | 36 | QB7 | 108.5 |
| Standard | 289 | 43 | 3 | 30 | QB7 | 109.7 |
| Season | G | Pass yds | Pass TD | INT | Car | Rush yds | Rush TD | PPR pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 16 | 3727 | 26 | 13 | 83 | 498 | 2 | 289 |
| 2024 | 17 | 3870 | 23 | 3 | 69 | 306 | 2 | 283 |
| 2023 | 13 | 3134 | 20 | 7 | 52 | 228 | 3 | 234 |
| 2022 | 17 | 4739 | 25 | 10 | 54 | 147 | 0 | 285 |
| 2021 | 17 | 5014 | 38 | 15 | 63 | 302 | 3 | 371 |
| Wk | Opp | Pass yds | Pass TD | INT | Car | Rush yds | Rush TD | PPR pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | KC | 318 | 3 | 0 | 7 | 32 | 0 | 27.9 |
| 2 | LV | 242 | 2 | 0 | 9 | 31 | 0 | 20.8 |
| 3 | DEN | 300 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 14.6 |
| 4 | NYG | 203 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 24 | 0 | 10.5 |
| 5 | WAS | 166 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 60 | 0 | 14.6 |
| 6 | MIA | 264 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 18.8 |
| 7 | IND | 420 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 31 | 0 | 27.9 |
| 8 | MIN | 227 | 3 | 1 | 7 | 62 | 0 | 25.3 |
| 9 | TEN | 250 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 57 | 1 | 27.7 |
| 10 | PIT | 220 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 19 | 0 | 14.7 |
| 11 | JAX | 81 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 21 | 0 | 3.3 |
| 13 | LV | 151 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 0 | 12.8 |
| 14 | PHI | 139 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 66 | 0 | 14.2 |
| 15 | KC | 210 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 10.4 |
| 16 | DAL | 300 | 2 | 0 | 8 | 42 | 1 | 30.2 |
| 17 | HOU | 236 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 37 | 0 | 15.1 |